Waller County presents a split case for investors: usable gross rent yield, but conflicting price signals and hazard exposure require verification, not a growth thesis. Zillow's 2026-06 observation shows median home value down 2.27% year over year while median asking rent rose 0.69%, producing a 7.55% gross yield before costs. FHFA's 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 4.33%; it is not a home value, and its method and vintage differ from Zillow's. The record supports income screening, not blended appreciation.
Economics are favorable only at gross level. The $2,304 monthly median asking rent is 146.5% of the $1,573 HUD two-bedroom FMR, but FMR is a payment standard, not market rent; the spread does not validate achievable rent. The property-tax rate is 1.27%, with median annual tax of $4,046. Missing insurance, repairs, vacancy, management, utilities, financing, and property-level tax variation prevent a net-yield or cash-on-cash conclusion.
Demand evidence is mixed. Tax-return movers produced net migration of 148, with inbound average AGI $4,472 above outbound; this is a county signal, not resident employment. Realtor.com's 2026-06 MLS snapshot shows 54 median days on market; that is marketing time, not a closed-sale price or proof of buyer demand. Investor purchases were 7.48% of 1,804 total purchases, so participation is present but not dominant. QCEW covered-workplace employment and wage growth support demand screening but do not establish household income or metro conditions.
Flood diligence is decisive: inland flood is dominant, and modeled annual building-value loss is 0.10%; that ratio is not a property-specific damage history or insurance quote. Next checks are parcel flood zone, elevation, claims and drainage history, insurance availability and deductibles, achieved rents, vacancy, expenses, and closed-sale comparables. Until then, the record cannot confirm rent durability, net yield, resale liquidity, or the reason for the Zillow–FHFA divergence. Growth-dependent buyers should be cautious; income-focused investors should investigate the property level.