Burt County has a split signal: headline price growth exceeds repeat-sale appreciation, while listings show seller concessions. It merits investigation for buyers able to verify rent and flood costs, and caution where underwriting depends on value appreciation. Zillow’s county median home value was $193,401 in 2026-06, up 5.61% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 2.13%; it is not a home value, and its period and method differ from Zillow’s, so the figures cannot form one growth rate.
Housing economics cannot support a return calculation: market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $961 monthly, but is a payment standard, not market rent. The effective property-tax rate is 1.32%, requiring parcel verification. Realtor.com’s separately labeled MLS snapshot has 23 active listings and a 25.54% price-reduced share: visible supply and seller concessions, not closed-sale pricing or proof of buyer demand.
Demand evidence is narrow. QCEW reports annual covered jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment or unemployment; its employment measure declined 2.58%, while covered-worker average wage increased. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the full economy. Tax-return migration showed net outflow of 21 households, with leavers’ average income $4,091 above entrants’. Nonoccupant borrowers accounted for 9 of 72 purchase mortgages, or 12.50%; this signals buyer competition but excludes cash purchases and does not establish rents or resale liquidity.
Modeled annual climate loss is 0.19% of building value, consistent with inland flood as the named dominant hazard, but a county average cannot replace parcel flood zone, elevation, drainage, claims, coverage, or premium evidence. The record does not publish market rent, vacancy, lease renewal, insurance costs, closed-sale comps, or property condition; gross yield, net operating margin, exit pricing, and property-level flood carrying costs therefore remain untested. Next checks are actual rent rolls, insurance quotes, tax bills, flood documentation, and comparable closed transactions against MLS inventory.