Coleman County’s underwriting tension is a Zillow median home value of $142,278 in 2026-06, up 3.72% year over year, against softer MLS marketing evidence and no published market rent. Investors able to verify property-level rent, flood exposure and taxes should investigate the income case; those relying on quick resale or assumed rent coverage should be cautious. This is county evidence, not a metro comparison. No FHFA annual HPI observation is published, so Zillow’s direction lacks a supplied repeat-transaction index cross-check.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,053 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for market rent or support a yield calculation. The published effective property-tax rate is 1.35%, making taxes a material carrying-cost input, but parcel assessments, exemptions and actual tax bills are not provided. The median home value is also not a closed-sale price.
QCEW reports 2,132 annual average covered jobs at county workplaces in 2025, down 1.84% from its prior annual average; this is neither resident employment nor unemployment. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not a description of the whole economy. Realtor.com MLS evidence shows a declining median listing price, 79 active listings, up 18.94%, and median marketing time of 124 days, longer year over year. These are asking-price, visible-supply and marketing-time measures rather than closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Net migration was positive, while inbound mover AGI exceeded outbound mover AGI by $516. The reported investor share was 19.15% across 47 purchase mortgages, indicating nonoccupant participation but not bidding intensity or property type.
Modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.16%, with inland flood identified as the dominant hazard. That is a modeled county-level loss ratio, not a property-specific flood loss or insurance quote. Missing rent comparables and leases prevent income and yield underwriting; missing parcel flood zones, insurance costs, condition data and tax bills prevent carrying-cost analysis; and missing closed-sale and pending-sale details prevent a firm conclusion on exit liquidity.