Cook County's decision tension is whether a recent county home-value gain can be underwritten against softer repeat-sale and MLS evidence. Investors able to verify rents, flood exposure, and sale comparables may investigate; those relying on headline appreciation or HUD benchmarks should be cautious. Zillow's $446,076 county median home value in 2026-06 rose 4.49% year over year. FHFA's 2025 repeat-transaction HPI, however, declined 7.63% annually. The observations use different vintages and methods, so neither establishes the other's trend or a sale price.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD's $973 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for it. Property tax rate is 0.69%, but parcel bills require verification; without market rent, price and tax burden cannot be tested against income. Modeled annual building-value loss is 0.10% alongside inland flood, the dominant hazard. Verify flood zone, elevation, insurance, and deductibles; the county model is not a parcel loss estimate.
Realtor.com MLS evidence shows active listing supply increased 17.43%, median days on market reached 37, and price reductions covered 11.68% of listings. These are visible asking-market supply, marketing-time, and seller-concession measures—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was a net outflow of 18 households, although average AGI of incoming movers exceeded that of departing movers. Nonoccupant purchase mortgages accounted for 6.74% of purchases (6 of 89), a limited measure of investor competition rather than all investor acquisitions. The 2025 QCEW records annual covered jobs at county workplaces; Leisure and hospitality is its largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy.
Key limits keep the thesis conditional. Missing market rents prevent income underwriting; missing closed-sale comparables prevent a supported entry-value conclusion; and missing parcel flood, insurance, vacancy, turnover, and capital-expenditure evidence prevents a complete carrying-cost and resilience view. Next checks should obtain current asking rents and leases, transaction comps, parcel tax records, and site-specific flood and insurance terms. QCEW is not resident employment, unemployment, or a forecast, while migration data do not establish future tenant or buyer demand.