Minnesota rental market data

Median asking-rent growth was 3.8% across 15 measured metros, while median home-value growth was 3.5% across 20. The resulting 0.3 percentage-point median advantage is positive but small, and the unequal coverage means it is not a paired result for every metro.

Local spreads are more pronounced. Winona recorded 18.6% rent growth against 3.3% home-value growth, while Austin recorded 8.0% against 4.8%. Those readings justify checking current rent comps in those markets, but they do not support applying the same growth assumption elsewhere.

Across 20 measured metros, employment growth ranged from -1.5% at the 10th percentile to 0.3% at the 90th percentile, with a median of -0.4%. County movement was also negative: 168,907 people moved in and 174,150 moved out, producing net migration of -5,243.

The counter-signals are limited but real. Rochester posted 0.4% job growth, and aggregate mover income was $26,513 higher inbound than outbound despite the population outflow. Because the migration and current market measures come from different periods, the packet cannot show that one directly explains the other.

The measured metro median was 2.2 months of supply and 27.5 days on market, but the 90th-percentile readings reached 4.3 months and 48.5 days. A median 27.6% of listings had price drops, indicating that limited typical inventory did not eliminate seller concessions.

Brainerd recorded 998 permitted units, or 10.1 per 1,000 residents, alongside 3.8 months of supply and 35 days on market. Bemidji was slower at 56 days, 3.5 months of supply and a 98.0% sale-to-list ratio; Albert Lea recorded 41 days, 2.9 months and a 97.0% ratio. Permits are not completed rental units, and resale measures do not establish leasing demand, but both belong in entry-price and exit-time assumptions.

Measured metro gross yields ran from 4.1% at the 10th percentile to 6.0% at the 90th, with a 4.8% median. Albert Lea paired a $202,264 home value and $1,023 monthly rent for a 6.1% gross yield; its rent-to-income measure was 17.3%.

Bemidji produced a similar 6.0% gross yield from a $271,823 value and $1,361 rent, but its 23.7% rent-to-income measure exceeded the metro 90th-percentile reading of 22.4%. Similar headline yields can therefore carry different affordability constraints. These are gross yields based on market measures, not net returns after vacancy, maintenance, taxes and other expenses.

Overall county housing vacancy had an 11.0% median and a 29.6% 90th-percentile reading, while the median renter share was 20.5%. Cook County reported 55.4% vacancy, a 22.3% renter share and a 91.0% single-family share; Aitkin County reported 49.3% vacancy and a 14.7% renter share. Overall ACS vacancy does not identify units available to long-term tenants.

Rent burden shows a separate constraint. The county median share of renters spending at least 30% of income on rent was 43.7%, rising to 52.4% at the 90th percentile. Pope County combined 22.8% overall vacancy with 66.5% renter burden, while Steele County combined 5.4% vacancy with 60.9% burden. These county distributions are not population-weighted tenant estimates, so local tenure and available-rental data remain necessary.

Annual FHFA appreciation across 85 measured counties had a -0.4% 10th percentile, 3.3% median and 7.7% 90th percentile. Lac qui Parle County stood far outside that range at 23.1% annual appreciation and 74.1% on the supplied multi-year measure. It is an outlier, not a statewide appreciation rate.

Among 67 counties with listing data, median marketing time was 43 days and the 90th percentile was 63.4 days. Cottonwood County, Mahnomen County and Pennington County took 96, 95 and 94 days, respectively, with only 44, 17 and 53 active listings. Slow marketing did not uniformly coincide with elevated price reductions. County rent data cover only 32 counties, preventing a full pairing of county appreciation, exit liquidity and rent economics.