Olmsted County, MN

Olmsted County presents a usable income screen but a mixed acquisition and exit backdrop: published market rent permits a pre-cost yield calculation, yet listing concessions, a negative migration balance, and inland-flood exposure temper a simple appreciation case. This merits investigation by buyers able to underwrite asset-level flood and operating costs; buyers dependent on broad price momentum or rapid resale should be cautious.

Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation places median home value at $356,877 and median asking rent at $1,702 per month, with a reported 5.72% gross yield before costs. Its price direction is positive; FHFA’s separate 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 2.52%. The methods and vintages corroborate direction but cannot be blended into one growth rate, and HPI is not a home value. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not measured asking rent. The 1.06% effective property-tax rate belongs in carrying-cost review.

The annual QCEW record counts covered jobs at county workplaces, rather than resident employment; Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Realtor.com’s separate MLS listing-market evidence has active listings up 29.11%, median listing price down 9%, and 18.35% of listings reduced. These describe visible supply, asking prices, and seller concessions—not closed sales or buyer demand proof. Tax-return migration showed a net loss of 192 households, with arriving movers reporting lower average AGI than departing movers. Investors accounted for 9.46% of 2,082 purchases, indicating participation that should be weighed against all purchases.

Modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.17%, and inland flood is the dominant hazard; this county-level model cannot establish a parcel’s flood exposure, insurance cost, or mitigation need. Vacancy, operating expenses, insurance and flood premiums, debt terms, property condition, submarket rent comps, and closed-sale history are not published. Their absence prevents a net-yield, debt-coverage, or resale-liquidity conclusion. Next checks are parcel flood maps and claims history, insurance quotes, lease comps, and transaction-level sales evidence.