Fillmore County presents a price-resilience-versus-income-certainty tension: buyers who can verify property-level rents and flood exposure may investigate, while leverage-sensitive buyers should be cautious. Zillow’s county median home value was $291,637 in June 2026, up 1.94% year over year. Separately, the FHFA repeat-transaction HPI rose 1.45% in 2025 and 45.57% cumulatively over five years. These are different methods and vintages, so they do not establish a common growth rate or sale value; the HPI only tracks repeat-transaction price change.
No county market asking rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. The supplied HUD two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, rather than evidence of current asking rent; it cannot fill that gap. At the reported value, the 0.94% effective property-tax rate is a recurring carrying-cost input, but the supplied median tax is not a parcel bill. An underwriter therefore cannot test rent coverage, operating margin, or price-to-rent fit from this record and needs current comparable leases, taxes, insurance, and expenses.
Visible MLS supply was 45 active listings in June 2026, 19.09% lower year over year, while 19.87% of listings had price reductions. This mix indicates tighter advertised supply alongside seller concessions; it is not closed-sale evidence or stand-alone proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration showed a net loss of 48 households, although inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $5,082. Investor mortgages accounted for 12 of 192 purchases, or 6.25%, limiting evidence that non-owner buyers dominate competition. QCEW reports covered jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment; Education and health services is its largest disclosed private supersector.
The modeled climate-loss ratio is a building-value-based annual expectation and is consistent with the stated inland-flood hazard, but it is not a parcel loss estimate. Flood zone, elevation, insurance quotations, prior claims, and mitigation status are absent, preventing property-level resilience underwriting. Transaction prices, rent comparables, vacancy, lease terms, and operating costs are also absent; without them, neither exit-value confirmation nor income coverage can be established. Submarket and school-district comparables remain necessary before treating county indicators as asset evidence.