At June 2026, ZIP 55902’s Zillow ZORI was $1,827 per month, up 4.87% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is Zillow’s ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types; it is not a quote for every available home. The annualized ZORI divided by the ZIP’s median sold price was 3.69%, a cross-source screening ratio only. Its arithmetic pairs rental and resale sources but is neither a cap rate, a net return, an expected return, nor a property yield. The central tension is therefore an advancing asking-rent reading alongside a resale-price denominator that must be examined separately, rather than translated into property economics.
The direct ZORI history through that endpoint places the current move in a longer path rather than a forecast. Exact same-month annualized changes were 4.87% over one year, 3.59% over three years and 4.43% over five years. Thus the latest direction confirms the longer upward path and is running faster than both multiyear measures, rather than breaking from it. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.14%, and the largest historical drawdown was 4.57%. The history had 100% coverage across 67 monthly observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 542 for momentum, 1,835 for stability and 813 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks stronger. The mixed history label fits: the complete record supports description, while variability and drawdown limit confidence placed in one current snapshot or any extrapolation.
For this report, the five-digit 55902 label functions as Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and as the matched Census ZCTA label. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a median gross rent of $1,703, putting the Zillow asking index 7.28% above that survey median. ACS median gross rent represents occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is observed asking rent across rental types, so the difference is not a direct pricing gap for a unit. HUD’s FY 2026 FMR/SAFMR is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its two-bedroom figure is $1,214. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,492 for a studio, $1,581 for one bedroom, $1,827 for two bedrooms, $2,502 for three bedrooms and $3,038 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The ACS ZCTA median household income was $120,611, an all-household survey statistic rather than a renter-income measure. Applying the stated 30% screen arithmetically to annualized ZORI gives required income of $73,080. This is a calculation, not affordability advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The supplied asking-rent-to-income comparison is 18.18%, but it combines Zillow’s current asking-rent index with ACS household income and cannot identify a household’s ability to pay. Separately, ACS reports that 48.37% of occupied renter homes paid at or above the threshold of income toward gross rent. That burden result is an aggregate survey measure, not proof that any particular available unit is affordable or burdensome.
Stock data frame the rental evidence but do not turn vacancy into availability. In the matched ACS ZCTA, 12,197 housing units included 859 vacant units, a 7.04% vacancy rate, and occupied homes had a 27.59% renter share. The survey classified 342 units as vacant for rent. The structure mix was led by single-family homes, with large multifamily buildings also represented, so the ZIPwide blended ZORI should not be read as a unit-type quote. These are ACS five-year inventory categories, not a count of currently rentable, suitably priced homes; similarly, vacancy does not prove the condition, terms, or availability of a particular unit.
Broader values supply context only. For Zillow asking-rent context, the City of Rochester, MN value was $1,702.28, the Olmsted County context value was $1,702, and the Rochester, MN metro context value was $1,695; each is a wider geographic context rather than a substitute for the direct ZIP index. The ZIP figure sits above all three, but this comparison does not make city, county, or metro listings ZIP comparables. Their ACS renter-share, vacancy, gross-rent and income statistics likewise are context with their own survey universe, not evidence that the ZIP’s renter share, utilities, or available homes have the same characteristics.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 30, 2026 describes a separate for-sale market, not rental transactions. Its median sold price was $594,816, up 12.23% year over year, while 134 homes sold with a median 23 days on market. For-sale inventory was 131 homes, equal to three months of supply; active listings and inventory were both higher than a year earlier. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.26%, and 28.49% of sales closed above list price. These liquidity and pricing signals cannot be treated as rental comps or property economics. The resale price increase confirms an upward direction also seen in ZORI history, but its much faster pace, the expanding listing measures and the distinct 3.69% screen challenge a one-source reading of rent, affordability, or market tightness.
Several limits remain material. Zillow’s index is a blended asking-rent measure, ACS is a five-year occupied-home survey with supplied margins of error, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin aggregates completed resale activity; none substitutes for unit-level facts. Concrete property-level checks include the advertised base rent, bedroom configuration, billed utilities and their treatment in gross rent, required fees, lease term, current availability, and whether the address belongs in the ZIP. Where rent is considered alongside resale evidence, verify that any sale comparison reflects the relevant property type, timing, condition, list price and closing status. The unresolved question is whether a specific listing’s all-in monthly obligation and relevant resale comparables can be verified without treating these separate aggregates as facts about that unit?