Scott County, MN

Scott County presents a yield-versus-resilience screen for investors able to verify asset-level flood and operating exposure; others should be cautious. The Zillow county observation reports a $450,087 median home value and $1,850 monthly median asking rent, with a supplied 4.93% gross yield before expenses. That is a county-level starting point, not a property cash-flow result, and it does not establish whether a target unit can achieve the published rent.

The published rent is measured market asking rent. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent or a substitute revenue input. Zillow’s value change is 1.59%; FHFA’s annual repeat-transaction HPI change is 2.36%. They point in the same direction but must not be averaged: Zillow is a home-value observation and FHFA is an index rather than a dollar home price, with distinct supplied vintages and methods. A 1.01% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input alongside the 4.93% gross-yield starting point; insurance, maintenance, financing and vacancy costs are not published.

QCEW annual workplace employment rose 1.07%, a covered-job measure rather than resident employment or a forecast. Realtor.com’s MLS listing market shows 420 active listings, up 16.04%, and 17.37% price-reduced; visible supply and seller concessions do not prove buyer demand or closed-sale prices. Outmovers exceeded inmovers by 175, and average outgoing AGI exceeded incoming AGI by $1,109. Non-occupant investor mortgage purchases represented 3.93% of 2,010 total purchases, so this measured investor participation must be read against all purchases rather than treated as a count of cash investors.

Modeled climate loss equals 0.15% of building value per year and aligns with inland flood as the named dominant hazard, but it is not a parcel-specific loss estimate. Obtain flood-zone, elevation, prior-claim and insurance-quote evidence before relying on the yield; without it, net yield and hazard tolerance cannot be underwritten. Also obtain property-level taxes, condition, lease terms, vacancy and closed-sale comparables: county asking rent and MLS listings cannot validate an asset’s stabilized income, expenses or exit pricing.