Cottonwood County presents a low-price but unsettled price-direction tension: investors able to verify unit economics should investigate, while those relying on quick resale or assumed rent should be cautious. Zillow’s county median home value was $169,765 in 2026-06, down 0.74% year over year. By contrast, FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction index rose 4.49% on its annual reading. These different dates and methods show conflicting direction, not a single appreciation rate.
Housing economics cannot yet support a yield screen. No published market asking rent exists, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $973 is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot fill that gap. The effective property-tax rate is 1.05%, with median annual tax of $1,781; parcel assessments and taxes need review alongside actual lease rent and operating costs. Realtor.com’s MLS listing-market evidence reinforces pricing caution: median marketing time was 96 days, and 9.64% of listings had price reductions. These describe seller marketing conditions, not closed-sale values or buyer demand.
Demand evidence is mixed and narrow. Net migration was negative 5 tax-return households, while average AGI for movers in exceeded movers out by $3,031; this is compositional evidence, not a measure of tenant demand. The record shows 6 investor purchases among 82 total purchases, or 7.32%, indicating minority non-owner participation rather than proof of pricing pressure. QCEW annual covered employment at county workplaces declined from the prior year. Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector; QCEW is neither resident employment nor a forecast.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.13% of building value expected annually. This county-level model does not identify a parcel’s flood zone, elevation, claims history, coverage, or insurance cost. Obtain closed-sale comparables before setting acquisition value, actual market rents before testing yield, and parcel-specific flood and insurance evidence before estimating carrying costs. Those omissions prevent a defensible property-level return, resale, or hazard-cost conclusion.