Crittenden County presents a value-versus-stability tension: a $124,921 median home value is paired with declining price and covered-job measures, so cash-flow buyers should investigate unit economics while leverage-sensitive buyers should be cautious. Zillow’s county measure fell 12.3% in 2026-06. Separately, FHFA’s repeat-transaction index fell 13.77% in its 2025 annual observation, despite a 57.75% cumulative five-year gain. These are differing vintages and methods, not one combined appreciation rate.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $866 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent, and cannot fill that gap. The effective property-tax rate is 0.57%, with a $731 median annual tax; these describe county-level burden, not the assessed value or bill for a target parcel. Underwriting still needs lease evidence, assessed value, tax history, insurance, utilities, repairs, vacancy and management costs before price can be linked to cash flow.
County workplace evidence adds a demand caution: QCEW reports 1,910 annual average covered jobs located in the county, down 3.34%. Manufacturing supplies 26.53% of disclosed private covered employment, showing exposure to the largest disclosed private supersector rather than the whole economy. Outmovers exceeded inmovers, although incoming movers reported marginally higher average income; neither migration nor incomes establishes renter demand. Investors accounted for 13.56% of purchase mortgages to non-occupants, a buyer-competition signal but not total purchase demand. Realtor.com listing price, active listings, days on market and price-reduction data are not published, preventing a read on MLS asking-price conditions, visible supply, marketing time or concessions.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.24% of building value expected per year; it is not a property-specific loss estimate. The central limits are no market rent, no listing-market measures and no parcel-level flood, insurance, condition or financing evidence. Those gaps prevent testing sustainable gross income, exit liquidity and the all-in cost of flood exposure. Next checks are address-level flood zone and claims history, insurance quotes and deductibles, signed comparable leases, current tax assessment and bill, and local transaction or MLS records.