Kentucky rental market data

Across the measured distributions, metro home-value change had a median of -0.5% and a 10th-to-90th-percentile range of -3.4% to 2.2%. Metro rent growth had a 3.2% median and a 1.2% to 5.4% range. The supplied median rent-minus-price growth spread was 3.6 percentage points, so the central pattern is rising asking rents alongside slightly declining values rather than synchronized appreciation.

Paducah paired a 3.3% value decline with 6.7% rent growth and a 9.0% gross yield. Murray was more extreme, with values down 23.6%, rents up 5.2% and a 7.7% gross yield. Those combinations can improve acquisition math on paper, but an unusually large value decline also calls for validation of local sales, property mix and exit assumptions. Gross yield is not a net-return measure.

The 14-metro gross-yield distribution had a 6.1% median and a 5.4% to 8.5% 10th-to-90th-percentile range. Median rent-to-income was 23.3%, with a 21.2% to 25.5% range. Asking rents were 118.0% of two-bedroom Fair Market Rent at the median, and the measured range was 103.0% to 133.0%. That gap makes achieved lease comps and unit comparability important when market asking rent is used in underwriting.

Paducah's $170,215 value and $1,273 rent produced a 9.0% gross yield, while rent was 23.8% of measured median income. Somerset's $183,719 value and $1,360 rent produced a similar 8.9% yield, but rent-to-income was 31.5%. The nearly equal headline yields therefore do not imply equal tenant capacity. Neither the income ratio nor the Fair Market Rent comparison establishes what a particular household or unit can support.

Across 14 measured metros, median inventory was 2.9 months, median marketing time was 45.5 days, 28.9% of listings had price drops and the median sale-to-list ratio was 97.9%. Those central figures do not describe every exit market: measured days on market ranged from 36.3 to 71.3 days between the 10th and 90th percentiles, while months of supply ranged from 2.1 to 4.8.

Bowling Green had 5.2 months of supply and an 86-day marketing time, although its price-drop share was only 20.5% and its sale-to-list ratio was 97.8%. Somerset had 4.9 months of supply, 65 days on market, a 28.6% price-drop share and a 95.9% sale-to-list ratio. Lexington provided a contrasting profile with 2.0 months of supply and 36 days on market despite a 31.4% price-drop share and 2,710 permitted units. Price cuts, inventory and marketing time should therefore be screened together; permits are not completed or rentable units.

Median employment growth across 14 metros was 0.5%, but the 10th-to-90th-percentile range ran from -0.3% to 1.4%. Frankfort recorded 2.5% growth, Somerset 1.5% and Richmond 1.1%. The positive median is a counter-signal to interpreting softer home values as evidence of uniform labor-demand weakness, although the distribution still includes contraction.

Across all 120 counties with migration data, 112,920 people moved in and 110,713 moved out, leaving a net gain of 2,207. That equals 0.5 net migrants per 1,000 residents. The direction is positive but the balance is narrow, and statewide migration cannot establish rental demand in any cited metro. The migration and employment series also cover different periods, so they should not be read as a single synchronized trend.

Across 120 counties, the median vacancy rate was 13.1%, with a 6.7% to 20.6% 10th-to-90th-percentile range. The median renter share was 25.6%, and 43.7% of renters were burdened at 30% or more of income; the 90th-percentile burden rate was 53.5%. Housing stock was predominantly single-family at a 71.0% median share, while large multifamily had a 0.9% median share and mobile homes 18.6%.

Martin County combined a 69.9% renter-burden rate with 20.7% vacancy and only a 15.1% renter share. Clay County had 65.2% burden and 15.9% vacancy, while Lee County had 64.5% burden and 19.6% vacancy. High total vacancy therefore does not demonstrate abundant, habitable rental supply, and high burden does not establish room for additional rent. The county data do not identify unit condition, leasable vacancy or the depth of demand at a subject property's rent.

Inland flood was the mutually exclusive leading-hazard label for 113 counties, while earthquake led in 7. These counts cover different counties and do not overlap, but a county's leading label is not evidence that every parcel has that exposure. The median county climate-loss ratio was 0.19%, and the 90th percentile was 0.39%. Floyd County measured 0.74%, Martin County 0.53% and Clay County 0.49%.

The county effective property-tax-rate distribution had a 0.68% median and a 0.56% to 0.86% 10th-to-90th-percentile range. Campbell County measured 1.01% with a $2,556 median tax, while Kenton County measured 0.98% with a $2,395 median tax. Tax and hazard costs should be screened separately because the packet does not supply parcel assessments, flood-zone determinations, insurance premiums or policy availability.