Cincinnati, OH
Cincinnati merits investigation by yield-focused buyers who can tolerate weak demand signals; investors relying on rapid rent growth or strong in-migration should avoid treating it as an easy expansion market.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Cincinnati merits investigation by yield-focused buyers who can tolerate weak demand signals; investors relying on rapid rent growth or strong in-migration should avoid treating it as an easy expansion market. The median home value is $313,303, median asking rent is $1,583, and gross yield is 6.06%.
Affordability is the opportunity. Rent consumes 23.41% of median household income, while the price-to-income ratio is 3.86. That leaves a measurable tenant affordability cushion. However, asking-rent growth of 2.9% is paired with job growth of only 0.22%, so current economics deserve more weight than assumed improvement.
Execution risk is mixed. Inventory stands at 2.4 months, yet 26.35% of listings have price drops, giving buyers a reason to test seller flexibility rather than infer broad scarcity. Net migration is negative, and outbound movers have higher average income than inbound movers. Favor deals that work at today’s rent and verify inland-flood exposure property by property.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
Does the headline property income support a rental acquisition?
Is there evidence that buyers can negotiate despite limited inventory?
What demand and risk checks matter most before buying?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Cincinnati as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Rents versus prices, indexed to 2019
Both series start at 100. The gap between the lines is the investment case, and which line is closing it tells you what kind of market this is.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 54 | 30% | 16.20 |
| Rent trend | 42 | 25% | 10.50 |
| Affordability | 58 | 15% | 8.70 |
| Supply pressure | 58 | 15% | 8.70 |
| Climate risk | 81 | 15% | 12.15 |
| Published score | 56 | ||
Job: CES employment growth of 0.22% -> tenant demand receives only a modest labor-market signal, so underwriting should not depend on strong employment expansion.
Rent: Median asking rent of $1,583 grew 2.9% year over year -> existing rent economics are more supportive than the weak job signal, but aggressive future increases are not established.
Afford: Rent equals 23.41% of median household income and home values equal 3.86 times income -> tenants retain an affordability cushion, while acquisition prices remain material relative to local earnings.
Supply: There are 10,518 permits, equal to 4.63 per 1,000 residents, alongside 2.4 months of for-sale supply -> buyers face limited current resale inventory but should account for a meaningful development pipeline.
Climate: The annual climate loss ratio is 0.105%, with inland flood the dominant hazard -> aggregate modeled loss is limited, but water exposure still requires address-level insurance and property review.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- Demand could underperform because net migration is negative: 28,888 households moved in while 29,847 moved out, a net loss of 959 households.
- The income mix of migration is unfavorable: average income among inbound movers is $70,475 versus $79,283 among outbound movers, producing a negative $8,808 gap.
- Rent performance may disappoint if weak CES job growth and additional permitted housing limit tenant demand or pricing power; the record shows 10,518 permits and only 0.22% job growth.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
Metros that behave like Cincinnati
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati, OH (Target) | 56 | $313k | $1,583 | 6.1% | ▲ 0.2% |
| San Antonio, TX | 34 | $280k | $1,416 | 6.1% | ▲ 0.1% |
| Kansas City, MO | 64 | $332k | $1,545 | 5.6% | ▲ 0.5% |
| Columbus, OH | 57 | $335k | $1,528 | 5.5% | ▲ 0.6% |
| Indianapolis, IN | 45 | $297k | $1,558 | 6.3% | ▼ 0.4% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |