Custer County’s decision tension is falling current value indicators against a still-positive longer-run FHFA index, with no published market rent to anchor cash flow. Cautious cash-flow buyers should investigate property-level rents and sales before treating the county as stable. Zillow’s June 2026 county median home value was $423,253, down 0.42% year over year. FHFA’s separately labeled 2025 repeat-transaction HPI fell 9.98% annually but remained 47.44% higher over five years. These are different vintages and methods: the HPI is not a home value, and the rates cannot be averaged.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,112 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent, and cannot fill that gap. The stated effective property-tax rate is 0.40%, with median annual tax of $1,547; these are carrying-cost inputs, not a complete expense budget. Insurance, financing, maintenance, vacancy and property-specific assessments are not published, preventing a break-even carrying-cost conclusion.
Realtor.com’s MLS evidence shows 222 active listings, up 13.27% year over year; median marketing time was 77 days and 16.67% of listings had price reductions. This describes visible asking supply, marketing time and seller concessions—not closed-sale prices or buyer demand by itself. Tax-return migration was net positive by 42 households, and incoming movers’ average income exceeded outgoing movers’ by a calculated $18,391, a narrow demand clue rather than resident-income evidence. Investor purchase-mortgage participation was 0% across 87 purchases. QCEW identifies Leisure and hospitality as the largest disclosed private supersector; QCEW is annual covered employment at county workplaces, not resident employment or the whole economy.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, while modeled annual climate loss equals 0.19% of building value; neither county figure establishes parcel exposure or insurance cost. Obtain market asking rents, vacancy, lease terms, flood-zone and insurance quotes, property condition, closed-sale comps, and operating and debt costs. Those omissions prevent gross-yield, debt-coverage, exit-value, and flood-carrying-cost conclusions; county-level migration and listings cannot resolve them.