WHAT THE STATE DISTRIBUTION SAYSAcross the current published direct-evidence ZIP reports, the latest Zillow ZORI asking-rent index spans $1,370 to $2,699, a $1,329 spread around a $1,797.50 median. That dispersion makes the practical question less “what is the statewide rent?” than which local asking-rent level fits a household’s budget and search geography. Greeley and Castle Rock mark the endpoints, but the figures are index readings, not quotes for matching available units. Searches that use a single state figure can mask the gap between the displayed low and high ends. The distribution covers current published direct-evidence reports rather than every ZIP, neighborhood, or rental property. It is a local-comparison screen, not a statewide inventory of listings, a count of rental supply, or a representation of every unit type.
Affordability requires a separate comparison from renter burden. The current ZORI-to-ACS median-household-income ratio ranges from 16.2% to 40.6%. The high-end index implies $92,560 in annual income at a 30% rent share, above its $68,415 ACS median household income. This screening ratio pairs a current asking-rent index with ZCTA median income; it is not the share of renters under strain. Separately, ACS 2024 five-year estimates put the renter-household share paying 30% or more at 33.0%–61.8%, with a 54.5% median. Because the measures use different rent concepts, household populations, and reference periods, a low ratio and a high burden share are not interchangeable signals. Neither determines a particular applicant’s payment.
Momentum does not equal stability. In the direct monthly Zillow series, one-year growth has a -0.1% median and ranges from -5.9% to +5.3%; the history classification includes cooling and accelerating reports. The positive-growth endpoint, Castle Rock 80109, pairs 2.1% annualized volatility with a 1.4% maximum drawdown. By contrast, Lakewood 80226 fell 5.2% over the year and recorded 3.9% volatility and a 7.9% drawdown. Volatility measures the dispersion of monthly changes, whereas drawdown captures the largest peak-to-trough decline in the measured history. These historical index measures describe the path of asking-rent readings; they do not forecast future rents.
HUD’s FMR/SAFMR amount is a local administrative standard set by bedroom count, not an asking-rent observation. In the listed Denver ZIP reports, the 2BR standard is $2,089. Across the published distribution, direct ZORI equals 72.0% to 129.2% of the applicable HUD benchmark, with a 99.1% median. It is useful for a standardized benchmark check only when its administrative purpose and bedroom definition remain explicit. That comparison does not establish a unit’s market rent, affordability, or program eligibility. ZIP-level measures cannot determine an address’s bedroom count, contract rent, lease terms, or included utilities. ACS indicators also refer to ZCTAs, which are not identical to USPS delivery ZIPs.
