In Grand Junction, Zillow’s current typical home value is $429,488, up 2.1% year over year, while typical observed market rent is $1,768 a month, up 3.8%. That produces a 4.9% gross yield before vacancy, management, maintenance, insurance, taxes, utilities and financing. The value equals 6.13x ACS median household income, and annual Zillow rent equals 30.3% of that income. The frame is therefore a before-cost income metric paired with citywide affordability pressure, not a property-level return estimate.
The city’s ACS housing stock contains 31,367 units, with a 4.6% vacancy rate; renters occupy 36.5% of occupied units. ACS reports a $389,800 median value for owner-occupied housing and $1,142 median gross rent for occupied rentals. Those surveyed measures cover occupied housing, and gross rent includes selected utilities. They differ in definition and period from Zillow’s typical value and observed market rent, so neither pair should be averaged or treated as a direct spread.
City depth is mixed: 47.2% of renters are cost-burdened, while single-family structures make up 70.4% of units and large multifamily structures 10.1%. Among vacant units, ACS identifies 528 for rent, with seasonal use another reported reason, but these reasons do not measure investable or currently available inventory. The population estimate increased 9.8% between overlapping ACS five-year vintages; it is not an annual rate and may reflect boundary changes. Median household income is $70,080, with poverty at 11.8% and unemployment at 4.8%. These are descriptive demand constraints, not causes or lease-up evidence.
At the county scope, Mesa County shows a 57-day median listing period and price reductions on 23.7% of active listings, which can inform negotiation expectations but does not measure city liquidity. The broader Grand Junction metro has a 0.2% year-over-year job decline and 2.9 months of supply; metro labor softness and sale inventory deserve stress testing without being assigned to the city. The national 30-year mortgage rate is 6.58%, a financing benchmark rather than a Grand Junction borrowing quote.
Underwriting remains limited by citywide, county, metro and national aggregates, the mismatch between Zillow and ACS measures, and gross yield’s omission of operating and financing costs. Before acting, verify the property’s attainable rent and concessions, taxes, insurance and hazard pricing, utility responsibility, condition and capital needs, management and maintenance costs, title and zoning, comparable leases and sales, and a vacancy allowance. Recalculate cash flow under the actual loan terms and inspect the asset; city vacancy cannot predict its lease-up.