Custer County presents a decision tension: Zillow’s rising value signal conflicts with a falling FHFA repeat-transaction index, and no published market rent tests income support. Zillow’s county median home value was $405,835, up 12.4% year over year; FHFA’s annual repeat-transaction HPI fell 9.97%. The HPI is not a home value, and the measures have different methods and vintages. Buyers relying on appreciation should investigate this conflict rather than combine them; FHFA also shows a 65.67% cumulative five-year change.
No county market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,079 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not a market asking-rent estimate, and cannot substitute for it. The 0.29% effective property-tax rate and $1,112 median annual tax identify a carrying-cost input, but parcel-level taxes, insurance, financing, maintenance and rent are not published. The value-versus-income case therefore remains untested.
Demand evidence is mixed and thin. Net migration was 18 tax-return households; households moving in reported average AGI of $62,599 versus $48,336 moving out, a supplied $14,263 gap. This is an income characteristic of movers, not proof of tenant demand. Investor mortgages represented 3 of 32 purchases, or 9.38%; the small purchase count describes participation but not durable buyer competition. QCEW reports annual covered employment at county workplaces and average covered-worker wage both increased year over year; Leisure and hospitality is the largest disclosed private supersector. These are workplace measures, not resident employment or unemployment.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.32% of building value expected lost per year. That county-level model requires property-level flood-zone, insurance and claims review; it does not establish loss for a specific home. Realtor.com MLS listing-market figures are not published, so asking-price, visible-supply, marketing-time and seller-concession conditions cannot be assessed. Missing market rent, vacancy, operating costs and closed-sale comparables prevent cash-flow, yield and exit-price underwriting.