Custer County presents a price-appreciation-versus-absorption tension: acquisition candidates should investigate entry-price support, while income-focused underwriting should be cautious because market asking rent is not published. Zillow’s county median home value was $184,240 in 2026-06, up 9.08% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI gained 6.34% annually and 36.44% cumulatively over five years. The index supports the direction of appreciation but is not a home value; its method and labeled period differ from Zillow’s, so the measures cannot be blended.
Market asking rent is not published. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $961 per month, but it is a payment standard rather than an estimate of asking rent; gross yield therefore cannot be computed. The county effective property-tax rate is 1.17%, with median annual property tax of $1,838. Lease comparables, vacancy, concessions, insurance and maintenance costs are needed before price can be tied to carrying cost or net income.
Realtor.com’s MLS listing-market evidence for 2026-06 shows 42 active listings, 20.29% more than a year earlier, a median 86 days on market, 7.62% of listings reduced, and an 18.07% pending-to-active ratio. These are visible supply, marketing-time and seller-concession measures—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand—and justify property-level absorption checks. Tax-return migration was negative by 12, with incoming movers reporting lower average AGI than those leaving. The record identifies five investor purchase mortgages to non-occupants among 73 purchases, a limited countywide investor presence rather than proof of competition in a target submarket.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled expected annual building-value loss ratio is 0.20%; it is not a parcel-specific dollar loss. QCEW’s 2025 series covers annual workplace-based employment, not resident employment or a forecast; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Missing sold comparables, lease and operating statements, flood-zone and insurance details, and property-specific tax assessment prevent a defensible cash-flow, resale-liquidity or hazard-cost conclusion.