Daviess County’s decision tension is a $297,308 Zillow county median home value in 2026-06, up 11.38%, against a 2025 FHFA repeat-transaction HPI decline of 3.73%. These are different vintages and methods, so they cannot be combined into one appreciation measure. Investors relying on a resale-value thesis should be cautious and investigate transaction comparables; the conflicting direction does not establish a county price trend.
Income underwriting is constrained: market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $888 per month is a payment standard, not a market-rent estimate and cannot fill that gap. Against the Zillow value benchmark, the 0.66% effective property-tax rate and $1,067 median annual tax are carrying-cost inputs, but rent is needed to judge their coverage. Inland flood is the dominant hazard; modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.17%, requiring property-specific insurance and flood-zone review.
Realtor.com’s MLS listing-market evidence shows 31 active listings and 86 median days on market. Active supply and marketing time describe visible listings, not closed-sale pricing or buyer demand; the reported price-reduced share warrants inspection of seller concessions. Tax-return migration was net positive by 36 households, and incoming movers’ average income exceeded outgoing movers’ by $18,229. That supports an income-composition observation, not demand proof. Investors accounted for 13 of 87 purchases, or 14.94%, a meaningful competitive presence rather than evidence that investors set pricing.
Annual QCEW evidence reports lower covered employment at county workplaces alongside higher average weekly covered-worker wage; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector. It is not resident employment, unemployment, or a forecast. The record lacks market rent, closed-sale comparables, vacancy, operating expenses, debt terms, and parcel-level flood and insurance costs. Those omissions prevent gross-yield, net-cash-flow, debt-service, and property-specific hazard conclusions; verify them before treating the county evidence as applicable to a particular asset.