Missouri rental market data

Median rent growth across 15 measured metros was 3.98%, only slightly above the 3.83% median home-value growth across 16 metros. The supplied difference is 0.15 percentage points, so the central tendency does not show a broad separation between rents and acquisition values.

The named momentum markets make the yield distinction clearer. Rolla recorded 9.19% rent growth against 4.58% value growth, yet its gross yield was 4.14%. Fort Leonard Wood posted 6.83% rent growth, 6.02% value growth and a 6.10% yield. Jefferson City had 6.73% rent growth and 6.55% value growth but a 4.43% yield. Momentum and entry yield are therefore separate screens; strong recent rent growth does not identify the strongest current income basis.

Across 16 measured metros, the median was 2.4 months of supply, 32.5 days on market and a 29.8% price-drop share. Those central figures conceal a major split among the named building markets. Branson had 11.75 permits per 1,000 residents, six months of supply and 53 days on market. Its sale-to-list ratio was 94.35%.

Columbia and Kansas City each had 1.8 months of supply and much shorter marketing times of 16 and 18 days, despite lower permit rates of 5.38 and 5.25 per 1,000. Their price-drop shares were still 33.27% and 32.13%. Permit activity did not map cleanly to resale tightness among these markets, and frequent price reductions did not necessarily mean long marketing times. Exit underwriting should preserve each measure rather than compressing them into one liquidity label.

Median employment growth across 16 metros was 0.58%, with the measured range running from a negative 1.04% at the 10th percentile to a positive 1.14% at the 90th percentile. The named job-growth markets were stronger: Rolla was up 1.87%, Columbia 1.16% and Sedalia 1.12%.

Household movement provides a positive but modest counter-signal. County totals show net in-migration of 2,766 people, equal to 0.45 per 1,000 residents, and aggregate incoming adjusted gross income exceeded outgoing income by $270,707. These statewide aggregates support neither a broad contraction nor a strong local demand conclusion. They can screen out an assumption of widespread population loss, but lease-up still requires locality-level confirmation, and the employment and migration releases do not cover the same period.

Annual FHFA appreciation had a 4.75% county median and an 11.97% 90th percentile, but the named leaders were far above that distribution. Harrison County recorded 53.04% annual and 137.65% five-year appreciation, St. Clair County 28.42% annual appreciation and Iron County 15.61%. These observations show exceptional dispersion, not a typical county return profile.

The slow-listing examples are different counties: Dunklin County had 94 days on market and a 28.66% pending ratio, Carter County had 88 days and a 12.50% pending ratio, and Stone County had 87 days and an 18.52% pending ratio. Because the appreciation leaders and slow-listing areas are not paired observations, the packet cannot establish a relationship between appreciation and exit liquidity. Coverage also limits cross-county screening: rent series exist for 32 counties, while days-on-market data cover 82.

Across 115 counties, the median ACS vacancy rate was 15.57% and the 90th percentile was 29.44%. At the same time, the median renter share was 24.48%, the median single-family share was 78.33%, and 40.85% of renters at the median county were burdened by housing costs.

The named counties show why total vacancy cannot be treated as available rental supply. Camden County had a 55.27% vacancy rate but only a 17.51% renter share. Ripley County combined 22.56% vacancy with a 63.50% renter-burden rate, while Hickory County combined 34.29% vacancy with 58.80% renter burden. The packet does not identify which vacant homes are seasonal, habitable or offered for rent, so high total vacancy does not establish easy acquisition, lease-up capacity or affordable supply.

Inland flood is the mutually exclusive leading-hazard label for 109 counties, while earthquake leads in six. These counts describe only the top FEMA hazard in each county. They do not mean every parcel is exposed to that hazard or that other hazards are absent.

The median county modeled loss ratio was 0.168%, with a 0.278% 90th percentile, but tax and modeled loss burdens do not move together. Reynolds County had a 0.442% loss ratio, a 0.369% property-tax rate and a $560 median tax. St. Louis County had a lower 0.159% loss ratio but a 1.205% tax rate and a $3,335 median tax. Screening must retain taxes and physical risk as separate cost dimensions; the packet does not provide parcel exposure or insurance premiums.