Davis County presents a decision tension: a $238,122 Zillow median home value and positive price readings sit beside contracting workplace employment and no measured market rent for yield. It merits investigation by buyers who can source property-level rents and flood data; caution is warranted where debt coverage depends on presumed rent. Zillow’s county observation labeled 2026-06 showed 3.29% year-over-year value growth, while FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 13.82%.
FHFA’s 67.60% cumulative five-year gain is a repeat-transaction appreciation index, not a dollar home value; its method and vintage differ from Zillow’s, so the readings cannot be averaged. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent. Because market rent is not published, gross yield cannot be computed. Against the Zillow value, carrying costs include a 1.40% effective property-tax rate and $2,269 median annual tax; assessment basis, insurance, and parcel-specific tax treatment are not supplied.
QCEW’s 2025 annual average reports 1,982 covered jobs at county workplaces, down 5.84% year over year; it is neither resident employment nor an unemployment measure. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Net tax-return migration was -18 households, although inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $7,650. Investor purchase mortgages represented 2.04% of 49 purchases, limited measured nonoccupant competition but not cash buyers or all investor ownership.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled climate loss equals 0.14% of building value per year. This is a modeled value-loss ratio, not a dollar loss, and needs site flood exposure and insurance quotations. No Realtor.com metrics are published, preventing assessment of MLS asking-price direction, active visible supply, marketing time, or seller concessions; those are listing-market rather than closed-sale evidence. Next checks are property-level market rents, lease-up, flood-zone history, insurance, tax bills, and condition. Without them, coverage, gross yield, and resale-liquidity conclusions remain untested.