De Baca County presents an underwriting conflict rather than a clear directional signal: Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $120,433, down 1.06% year over year, while Realtor.com’s 2026-06 median MLS listing price increased 36.54%. These are different measures—a home-value measure and asking-price evidence—and the listing change is not a closed-sale result. Investors relying on dependable entry, exit, and rent comparables should investigate individual assets because the county record does not resolve the divergence.
Income underwriting is the central constraint. Median asking market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be calculated. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $973 per month is a payment standard, not an estimate of county asking rent, and cannot fill that gap. Carrying-cost review should include the 0.60% effective property-tax rate and $1,118 median annual tax, but neither substitutes for parcel tax bills, insurance, repairs, vacancy, or utilities.
Listing-market evidence indicates thin, changing visible supply: 11 active MLS listings, a median 89 days on market, and a 31.82% pending-to-active ratio. These describe marketed supply and marketing time, not completed buyer demand. Tax-return migration was net negative by 4 households; arriving movers had higher average AGI than departures, but the supplied $745 gap does not establish housing absorption. Reported investor share was 0% across 5 purchases, too small a base to prove no competition. In 2025, QCEW counted 451 annual-average covered jobs, up 2.50%; this is workplace employment, not resident employment or a forecast.
Risk limits remain material. Inland flood is the named dominant hazard, and modeled climate loss equals 0.34% of building value per year; it is modeled loss rather than a parcel insurance quote. No FHFA annual HPI observation is published, so there is no repeat-transaction check on Zillow’s direction. Missing market-rent, closed-sale, flood-zone, insurance, parcel-condition, and financing evidence prevents a defensible yield, resale, and hazard-cost conclusion; these require asset-level verification.