States / New Mexico

State rental intelligence

New Mexico rental market data

A source-traced view across 12 metro markets and 33 counties. State figures below are labelled medians and totals—not a made-up statewide investment score.

9/12 metros scored33/33 counties with FEMA risk13 sources used in this analysis

Median scored metro44.0out of 100 · 9 measured metros

New Mexico identity diorama showing regional landscape, cities, housing, and infrastructure

Median metro home value$266kmedian across published metro values

Median metro rent$1,489monthly · published metro values

Median gross yield7.7%annual rent ÷ price · before costs

Median job trend▼ 0.8%trailing 12-month metro employment

State research brief

Asking-rent growth leads nearly flat home-value growth by 3.3 percentage points across the measured metro distributions, even as the median job reading and net migration are negative.

Updated 2026-07-31 · evidence current to the releases listed below.

Across 12 New Mexico metros, the median annual home-value change was 0.1%, while asking-rent growth had a 3.4% median among the nine metros with annual rent data. The measured difference was 3.3 percentage points. That spread is the central opportunity signal, but demand evidence does not uniformly support it: median metro job growth was -0.8%, county migration totaled -279 across 32 counties, and mover income showed a $60,673 net outflow.

Screening should therefore test whether local employment, renter capacity and resale liquidity can sustain the rent headline. The packet identifies meaningful differences in gross yield, supply, vacancy, tenant burden, taxes and county-level hazard measures; it cannot establish property-level occupancy, effective rent, operating expenses, insurance cost or net return.

3.3-percentage-point median lead for metro rent growth over value growth → validate achievable lease increases before assigning value to the spread

Median metro job growth of -0.8% and net migration of -279 → require local demand evidence rather than relying on the statewide rent headline

Carlsbad's 2.4% job growth, 2.1 months of supply and 6.78 permits per 1,000 residents → screen current occupancy and incoming supply together

Silver City's 116 days on market and Taos's 7.4 months of supply → use market-specific disposition timing and sale-price sensitivity

A 48.4% median renter-burden share across counties → test rent growth against local tenant-income capacity

Price and rent momentum

Rent growth carries the headline while values are nearly flat

The measured metro medians separate sharply: asking rents rose 3.4% among nine metros, versus 0.1% home-value growth across 12. Roswell shows the clearest local version, with rent up 7.1%, value up 0.4% and a 9.8% gross yield. Carlsbad has rent growth of 6.8% against value growth of 0.8%, with a 7.6% gross yield.

Farmington is a counter-signal: its value rose 6.0%, slightly faster than its 5.2% rent increase, while gross yield was 5.6%. The spread therefore is not uniform and should not be treated as a statewide appreciation or cash-flow result. Zillow asking-rent growth also does not establish achieved lease growth, occupancy or net operating income.

Evidence: Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Zillow ZORI — metro market rents

Employment and household movement

Broad demand readings are soft despite three positive job markets

Median job growth across 12 measured metros was -0.8%, with the distribution running from -1.5% at the 10th percentile to 1.8% at the 90th. Migration records covering 32 counties show a net loss of 279 movers and a $60,673 gap between incoming and outgoing mover income.

The local counter-signal is meaningful. Carlsbad recorded 2.4% job growth and a 7.6% gross yield; Las Cruces and Farmington posted job growth of 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Jobs, migration and mover income therefore do not point in one direction. Screening needs a market-specific demand case rather than an assumption that rising asking rents represent broad household growth.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — population · BLS CES — payroll employment · BLS LAUS — resident employment · IRS SOI — county migration and mover income

Supply and resale conditions

Current tightness and a visible permit pipeline coexist in Carlsbad

The measured metro median was 4.4 months of supply, 37 days on market and a 24.2% price-drop share. Carlsbad was tighter at 2.1 months and 29 days, but it also recorded 414 permitted units, or 6.78 per 1,000 residents, alongside a 25.0% price-drop share. Las Cruces had 4.6 months of supply and 53 days on market.

Exit conditions weaken elsewhere: Silver City recorded 116 days on market and 6.5 months of supply, while Taos had 100 days and 7.4 months. These figures support materially different resale-time and pricing assumptions by metro. Permit counts indicate a pipeline but do not establish completion timing, tenure, rent level or absorption.

Evidence: Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts

Entry cost and affordability

Roswell's top gross yield comes with the greatest measured rent stretch

Metro gross yields had a 7.7% median and ranged from 5.2% at the 10th percentile to 8.9% at the 90th. Roswell exceeded that range at 9.8%, based on a $171,680 value and $1,399 monthly rent. Its rent-to-income measure was 31.7%, compared with 26.0% in Clovis and 25.7% in Hobbs.

Clovis and Hobbs still showed gross yields of 8.9% and 8.6%, respectively. The comparison makes the trade-off visible: the strongest headline yield also carries more measured tenant-income stretch. Gross yield excludes vacancy, concessions, maintenance, taxes, insurance, capital work and financing, so it is an entry screen rather than a cap rate.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — household income · HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard · Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Zillow ZORI — metro market rents

Housing stock and tenant conditions

High county vacancy often does not represent a deep renter market

Across all 33 counties, the median ACS vacancy rate was 20.7%, while the median renter share was 26.9%. Catron County illustrates why those measures must be separated: vacancy was 47.5%, but renters represented only 6.2% of households in a population of 3,743. Broad housing vacancy is not the same as available, rentable inventory.

Tenant capacity is another constraint. The median share of renters spending at least 30% of income on rent was 48.4%, reaching 56.4% at the 90th percentile. De Baca County reported a 100% burden estimate and 34.9% vacancy, but its population was only 1,576, making the estimate especially important to validate locally. These ACS measures do not reveal unit condition, seasonal vacancy or current lease availability.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock

Physical risk and property tax

County hazard and tax measures vary too widely for a single expense assumption

FEMA assigns inland flood as the mutually exclusive leading-hazard label in 29 counties and wildfire in four. The county climate-loss ratio had a 0.25% median and a 0.42% 90th percentile, while Mora County, Roosevelt County and Catron County measured 0.69%, 0.52% and 0.49%, respectively.

The median effective property-tax rate was 0.55%, with a 0.73% 90th percentile. McKinley County measured 2.0% with a $1,574 median tax, while Bernalillo County measured 0.9% with a $2,629 median tax. These county measures are useful expense-screening flags, but a leading-hazard label is not parcel-level exposure and the packet provides no property-specific insurance quote.

Evidence: FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios · Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax

Evidence selected for New Mexico

The ranges behind the analysis

Each row keeps its own unit and shows the measured 10th percentile, median and 90th percentile. A single-value row is labelled directly.

Price and rent momentumAre home values and asking rents moving together or separating?

Employment and household movementDo jobs, household movement and mover income point in the same direction?

Supply and resale conditionsWhat do permits, inventory, marketing time and price cuts say about pressure?

Shape of the state

Distribution before conclusion

A statewide median can hide a wide spread. These SVG charts render at build time and carry no chart library or browser-side data request.

Metro score distribution9 scored metros · median 44.0

County evidence coverageEvery gap stays visible as missing—not estimated

Highest measured metro gross yieldsscreening metric only · before expenses and financing

Metro leaderboard

Markets touching New Mexico

Multi-state CBSAs appear in every member state. Score is still a metro score; no value is reweighted into a statewide ranking.

#	Metro	Score	Price	Rent	Yield	Jobs
1	Farmington, NM	72	$278k	$1,286	5.5%	▲ 1.5%
2	Carlsbad, NM	68	$254k	$1,600	7.6%	▲ 2.4%
3	Las Cruces, NM	48	$289k	$1,449	6.0%	▲ 1.9%
4	Hobbs, NM	45	$202k	$1,455	8.6%	▼ 0.7%
5	Santa Fe, NM	44	$561k	$1,931	4.1%	▲ 0.4%
6	Clovis, NM	40	$163k	$1,206	8.9%	▼ 1.4%
7	Roswell, NM	40	$172k	$1,399	9.8%	▼ 1.6%
8	Albuquerque, NM	31	$354k	$1,522	5.2%	▼ 0.8%
9	Alamogordo, NM	26	$233k	$1,525	7.9%	▼ 0.8%

Showing the top 9 scored metros of 12. Unscored metros remain discoverable through the national rankings.

Below the metro line

Largest counties in New Mexico

County figures join on the five-digit FIPS code. The table uses measured local values and prints “n/a” wherever a publisher has no record.

County	Population	Price	Rent	Yield	Hazard
Bernalillo County, NM	673,930	$354k	$1,488	5.1%	inland flooding
Doña Ana County, NM	224,266	$289k	$1,449	6.0%	inland flooding
Santa Fe County, NM	156,105	$561k	$1,931	4.1%	inland flooding
Sandoval County, NM	153,604	$379k	$1,850	5.9%	inland flooding
San Juan County, NM	120,942	$278k	$1,286	5.5%	inland flooding
Valencia County, NM	78,458	$318k	$1,885	7.1%	inland flooding
Lea County, NM	73,733	$203k	$1,455	8.6%	inland flooding
McKinley County, NM	70,431	$223k	n/a	n/a	inland flooding
Otero County, NM	68,816	$233k	$1,525	7.9%	inland flooding
Chaves County, NM	64,217	$172k	$1,399	9.8%	inland flooding
Eddy County, NM	61,105	$254k	$1,600	7.6%	inland flooding
Curry County, NM	47,638	$163k	$1,206	8.9%	inland flooding

County yield sample17/33counties have the rent needed to compute yield

Statewide net migration−279IRS tax-return households summed across counties

Median investor share4.3%among counties with HMDA purchase records

Published city evidence

Go from New Mexico to a city record

These links exist only where an official Census place, direct city price and rent series, and a checked city brief are all available.

City · NMAlbuquerque$350k home · $1,486 rent · 5.1% yield City · NMLas Cruces$292k home · $1,424 rent · 5.9% yield City · NMSanta Fe$590k home · $1,932 rent · 3.9% yield

Sources used in this analysis

Measured releases, not a global source count

Only sources supporting the selected evidence modules are listed here.

Bear case

What can break the thesis

Annual metro rent growth covers nine of 12 metros, and county rent levels cover 17 of 33 counties; unmeasured areas may differ materially.
Asking rents and gross yields omit concessions, physical vacancy, operating expenses, capital work, financing and insurance, so the apparent rent-value spread may not become net cash flow.
The negative median job reading, net migration loss and mover-income outflow are genuine counter-signals to the rent-growth thesis.
ACS vacancy covers the broader housing stock and may include seasonal, unavailable or unsuitable units; it cannot establish rental availability.
FEMA leading-hazard labels and loss ratios are county-level screens, while parcel exposure, building resilience and current insurance terms are missing.

Investor questions

Before underwriting a property

Are rents and home values moving together?

Not at the measured medians. Metro asking-rent growth was 3.4% among nine metros, versus 0.1% value growth across 12, a supplied difference of 3.3 percentage points. Farmington is a counterexample, with value growth of 6.0% slightly ahead of rent growth of 5.2%.

Is Carlsbad an unambiguous demand-and-supply winner?

No. It combines 2.4% job growth, a 7.6% gross yield and 2.1 months of supply with 414 permitted units, 6.78 permits per 1,000 residents and a 25.0% price-drop share. The figures support further screening but not an unconditional conclusion.

Where does measured resale liquidity look weakest?

Silver City recorded 116 days on market and 6.5 months of supply; Taos recorded 100 days and 7.4 months. Those figures indicate slower measured marketing conditions than the metro medians of 37 days and 4.4 months.

Does Roswell's 9.8% gross yield establish the best net return?

No. Roswell also has a 31.7% rent-to-income measure, and gross yield excludes vacancy, expenses, capital costs, financing and insurance. It is a strong entry-screen figure, not a net-return estimate.

Can the hazard data determine whether a specific property is exposed?

No. The 29 inland-flood and four wildfire counts are mutually exclusive county leading-hazard labels. They do not establish parcel-level exposure, expected insurance cost or building-specific resilience.