All homes and bedroom counts
Markets / New Mexico / Carlsbad
RENTAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Carlsbad, NM
Carlsbad merits investigation by income-focused buyers who can underwrite water risk and tenant depth; buyers seeking strong migration support or low hazard exposure should avoid it.
Median price$254k
Median rent$1,600
Gross yield7.6%
Job growth▲ 2.4%
Composite Market ScoreRank #55 of 571 scored US market areas
Direct rental answer
How much is rent in Carlsbad, NM?
Zillow's metro-wide Observed Rent Index is $1,600 per month for 2026-06-30. That is up 6.77% from a year earlier.
Occupied rental units paying rent
Two-bedroom standard
These figures are not averaged together. Zillow and Realtor describe asking-rent markets, ACS measures rent paid by surveyed households, and HUD publishes administrative bedroom standards.
Exact county schedules
HUD rent benchmarks inside Carlsbad
Every row keeps its own county FIPS schedule. No county is selected as a metro proxy and no synthetic metro FMR is calculated.
| County | Studio | 1 BR | 2 BR | 3 BR | 4 BR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddy County, NMFIPS 35015 | $1,035 | $1,084 | $1,188 | $1,619 | $1,625 |
The read
Why this market scores where it does
Carlsbad merits investigation by income-focused buyers who can underwrite water risk and tenant depth; buyers seeking strong migration support or low hazard exposure should avoid it. The record pairs a $253,887 median value with $1,600 median asking rent and a published gross yield of 0.0756, supporting income underwriting before expenses.
Operating signals are favorable but not uniform. Asking rent rose 6.77% year over year while home values rose 0.79%, and LAUS jobs increased 2.44%. Yet tax filings show net migration of only 4 households, so recent rent strength should not be treated as broad population-backed demand.
Availability is tight at 2.1 months, but the published price-drop share is 0.25, and permit intensity is 6.78 per thousand residents. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with an annual climate loss ratio of 0.00305; property-level exposure and insurance terms remain central diligence items.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
What do the published rent measures show?
Median asking rent is $1,600, fair-market rent for a two-bedroom is $1,188, and published gross yield is 0.0756.
Are employment and migration moving together?
LAUS jobs grew 2.44% year over year; 1,391 households moved in and 1,387 moved out, leaving net migration of 4.
How tight is resale supply, and what hazard dominates?
Months of supply are 2.1, median market time is 29 days, and inland flood is the dominant hazard with an annual climate loss ratio of 0.00305.
Investor Quick Takeaways
Gross Yield: 7.6%
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Rent Momentum: ▲ 6.77%
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Investor Activity: 5.8%
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Climate Exposure: FEMA NRI
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Put the evidence to work
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Carlsbad as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
Run cash flowStarts with this market's measured price and rentSave to shortlistCompare this metro with up to four other placesCheck rent by ZIPMove from metro context to a local rent benchmarkFind a comparison marketRead a curated two-market decision analysisShare this analysisEmail the canonical link without adding page scriptsReport a data issueSend the figure, source and release period to review
Market pulse
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Months of supply2.1 mo.▼ from 2.6 mo. a year ago
Median days on market29 days▼ from 31 days a year ago
Listings with price drops25.0%▲ from 18.8% a year ago
Sale-to-list ration/a2026-05-01
Home value growth▲ 0.8%Zillow ZHVI · trailing 12 months
Rent growth▲ 6.77%Zillow ZORI · trailing 12 months
Gross rental yield7.6%Rent × 12 ÷ price
Payroll job growth▲ 2.4%LAUS · 12m to 2026-05
Release-to-release evidence
What actually changed
This comparison exists because at least one underlying source period advanced. Rebuilding the same data never creates a new observation.
Published score held steady68→68
0 ptsThe published component scores did not move in this release.
Weights were unchanged at metro-2026-07-v2-omb2023, so the movement comes from refreshed evidence and percentile ranks.
The named source periods advanced, but the measured values on this page held steady.
Composite breakdown
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
Published arithmeticComponent × weight = points
68| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 96 | 30% | 28.80 |
| Rent trend | 87 | 25% | 21.75 |
| Affordability | 51 | 15% | 7.65 |
| Supply pressure | 53 | 15% | 7.95 |
| Climate risk | 11 | 15% | 1.65 |
| Published score | 68 | ||
Carlsbad, NM scoreRank #55
68Job growth96/100
LAUS jobs grew 2.44% year over year -> employment is a supportive demand signal, but tax-file migration is nearly flat.
Rent trend87/100
Median asking rent grew 6.77% and published gross yield is 0.0756 -> income metrics support investigation before property expenses.
Affordability51/100
Price-to-income is 3.24 and rent-to-income is 0.2449 -> affordability is not an obvious concern at the published medians.
Supply pressure53/100
Months of supply are 2.1 while permits run at 6.78 per thousand residents -> resale inventory is tight, but the supply pipeline warrants submarket review.
Climate risk11/100
Inland flood is the dominant hazard and annual climate loss ratio is 0.00305 -> water exposure and insurance terms require property-level review.
The numbers
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
ZHVI Median Price
$254k
YoY ▲ 0.8%
ZORI Median Rent
$1,600
YoY ▲ 6.77%
Gross Rental Yield
7.6%
Rent × 12 ÷ price
$1,600 × 12 ÷ $253,887
Job Growth (YoY)
▲ 2.4%
LAUS payrolls
Job signal 96/100
Median Household Income
$78k
Census ACS 5-year
Rent Burden
24.5%
Annual rent ÷ household income
Price-to-Income
3.2x
Median value ÷ household income
HUD 2BR Fair Market Rent
$1,188
Market rent 134.7% of FMR
Historical affordability context
Compare aligned 2019 and 2024 asking-rent and nominal household-income endpoints across the direct-overlap metro set.
Independent rent evidence
One market, several legitimate rent benchmarks
These releases observe different homes and different moments. RentMarker keeps them separate: ZORI remains the scoring baseline, while the other sources test how sensitive the market story is to bedroom mix and measurement method.
Monthly benchmark4 of 4 reported values
Zero-based scale$1,600Primary RentMarker baseline
2026-06-30
All homes and bedroom counts
A smoothed metro rent index for observed rentals; it is the primary rent used by RentMarker scores and career ratios.
View source release ↗$1,084−$516 vs ZORI
FY2026 FMR
One-bedroom standard
An administrative gross-rent benchmark used by HUD programs; it is neither a listing median nor a prediction of one lease.
View source release ↗$1,188−$412 vs ZORI
FY2026 FMR
Two-bedroom standard
An administrative gross-rent benchmark used by HUD programs; it is neither a listing median nor a prediction of one lease.
View source release ↗$1,245−$355 vs ZORI
ACS 2024 5-year
Occupied rental units paying rent
A five-year survey estimate of contract rent plus applicable tenant-paid utilities; it is not a current asking-rent index.
View source release ↗Take the next step
Keep Carlsbad as context, then replace market-wide evidence with the candidate property's facts.
Supply pipeline
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
National supply context
Compare this authorization pipeline with asking-rent growth, jobs and for-sale liquidity across the evidence-complete metro set.
Building permits by structure type
units per year · latest year annualised
406 units authorised in 2026, 43% of them in 5+ unit buildings. A meaningful share is apartments, which discount first when they lease up. ✓ recomputed from series
Who is arriving, and who is buying
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
Net Household Move
+4
1,391 in vs 1,387 out (IRS SOI)
▲ 0.3% of arriving households
Mover Income Gap
−$18,373
Arriving $63,394 vs leaving $81,767
Average AGI per tax return (IRS SOI)
Investor Purchase Share
5.8%
44 of 760 originated purchase loans
CFPB HMDA 2024
Dominant Hazard
inland flooding
0.305% building value annual loss ratio
FEMA NRI · risk type: water
Compare yield and FEMA exposure →Households arrive mainly from: El Paso County · Chaves County · Doña Ana County · Bernalillo County · Lea County
✓ 1,391 in − 1,387 out = 4 netDirect market links
Where tax-return households moved from and to
These are the largest flows where both counties map to a RentMarker market area. They are a documented subset of the all-US IRS totals above.
Leading inbound markets
- El Paso, TX100 arriving
- Roswell, NM96 arriving
- Las Cruces, NM62 arriving
Leading outbound markets
- Roswell, NM115 leaving
- Lubbock, TX73 leaving
- Las Cruces, NM66 leaving
The other side
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- Net tax migration of 4 households offers little confirmation of a meaningfully expanding household base.
- A 0.25 listing price-drop share tempers the significance of 2.1 months of supply.
- Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the annual climate loss ratio is 0.00305, leaving water exposure and insurance terms unresolved at the property level.
Inside this micro area
Move from the market-area average to local evidence
Use the available county and city pages to add local price, rent, housing, migration and hazard context to the market-area view.
County records
Statistical peers
Market areas that behave like Carlsbad
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Market area | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlsbad, NM (Target) | 68 | $254k | $1,600 | 7.6% | ▲ 2.4% |
| Sandusky, OH | 77 | $243k | $1,689 | 8.4% | ▲ 2.1% |
| Cortland, NY | 79 | $209k | $1,365 | 7.8% | ▲ 3.0% |
| Watertown, NY | 74 | $236k | $1,467 | 7.4% | ▲ 1.7% |
| Gainesville, TX | 65 | $323k | $1,741 | 6.5% | ▲ 1.4% |
Provenance
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income and gross rent | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-08-05 |
| Census ACS 5-year — historical household income | direct | ACS 2019 and 2024 5-year | 2026-08-05 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Apartment List Rent Estimates — recent-lease rent index | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| BEA County Personal Income — income and population | direct | 2024 County Personal Income (released 2026-02-05); history 1969-2024 | 2026-08-03 |
| BEA Regional Price Parities — metropolitan price levels | direct | 2024 Regional Price Parities (released 2026-02-19); history 2008-2024 | 2026-08-03 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS OEWS — occupation employment and wages | direct | May 2025 OEWS estimates (released 2026-05-15) | 2026-08-03 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2021-2025; latest 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-08-02 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA | 2026-08-08 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI history 1975-2025; latest 2025 | 2026-08-02 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD CHAS — renter burden by HAMFI income band | direct | HUD CHAS 2018-2022 ACS 5-year (released 2025-12-23) | 2026-08-03 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD-USPS ZIP-to-county residential-address crosswalk | direct | HUD-USPS 2026Q1 | 2026-08-09 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-30 | 2026-08-06 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-08-06 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Realtor.com Rental Report — top-50 asking rents | direct | top-50 rental asking rents 2026-05 | 2026-08-05 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply | direct | ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03 | 2026-08-12 |
| USDA ERS — Rural-Urban Continuum Codes | direct | USDA ERS 2023 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes | 2026-08-02 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI - metro market rents, not seasonally adjusted | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_month.csv | 2026-08-15 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-08-08 |