Carlsbad, NM
Carlsbad merits investigation by income-focused buyers who can underwrite water risk and tenant depth; buyers seeking strong migration support or low hazard exposure should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Carlsbad merits investigation by income-focused buyers who can underwrite water risk and tenant depth; buyers seeking strong migration support or low hazard exposure should avoid it. The record pairs a $253,887 median value with $1,600 median asking rent and a published gross yield of 0.0756, supporting income underwriting before expenses.
Operating signals are favorable but not uniform. Asking rent rose 6.77% year over year while home values rose 0.79%, and LAUS jobs increased 2.44%. Yet tax filings show net migration of only 4 households, so recent rent strength should not be treated as broad population-backed demand.
Availability is tight at 2.1 months, but the published price-drop share is 0.25, and permit intensity is 6.78 per thousand residents. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with an annual climate loss ratio of 0.00305; property-level exposure and insurance terms remain central diligence items.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
What do the published rent measures show?
Are employment and migration moving together?
How tight is resale supply, and what hazard dominates?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Carlsbad as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 96 | 30% | 28.80 |
| Rent trend | 87 | 25% | 21.75 |
| Affordability | 51 | 15% | 7.65 |
| Supply pressure | 53 | 15% | 7.95 |
| Climate risk | 11 | 15% | 1.65 |
| Published score | 68 | ||
LAUS jobs grew 2.44% year over year -> employment is a supportive demand signal, but tax-file migration is nearly flat.
Median asking rent grew 6.77% and published gross yield is 0.0756 -> income metrics support investigation before property expenses.
Price-to-income is 3.24 and rent-to-income is 0.2449 -> affordability is not an obvious concern at the published medians.
Months of supply are 2.1 while permits run at 6.78 per thousand residents -> resale inventory is tight, but the supply pipeline warrants submarket review.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard and annual climate loss ratio is 0.00305 -> water exposure and insurance terms require property-level review.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- Net tax migration of 4 households offers little confirmation of a meaningfully expanding household base.
- A 0.25 listing price-drop share tempers the significance of 2.1 months of supply.
- Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the annual climate loss ratio is 0.00305, leaving water exposure and insurance terms unresolved at the property level.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Carlsbad
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlsbad, NM (Target) | 68 | $254k | $1,600 | 7.6% | ▲ 2.4% |
| Sandusky, OH | 77 | $243k | $1,689 | 8.4% | ▲ 2.1% |
| Cortland, NY | 79 | $209k | $1,365 | 7.8% | ▲ 3.0% |
| Watertown, NY | 74 | $236k | $1,467 | 7.4% | ▲ 1.7% |
| Gainesville, TX | 65 | $323k | $1,741 | 6.5% | ▲ 1.4% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |