San Juan County’s tension is a screenable county income case against uncertain exit support from listing concessions and net outmigration. Investors able to verify submarket rents, flood exposure and property expenses should investigate; buyers requiring fast resale liquidity or assuming countywide appreciation should be cautious. Zillow reports a $278,025 median home value, $1,286 monthly median asking rent and a 5.55% gross yield before costs.
Reported gross yield is available because market rent is published, but it is pre-cost, not net cash flow. Effective property tax is 0.68%, and median annual tax is $1,317; debt service, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, utilities and flood costs are not published. The supplied HUD FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot replace market rent. FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 6.2% and gained 50.86% cumulatively over five years; it is an index, not a home value. Its direction supports but cannot be averaged with Zillow’s 2026-06 5.93% value change.
At 2026-06, Realtor.com MLS data show 125 active listings and 15.68% price-reduced. These describe visible asking supply and seller concessions, not closed-sale pricing or buyer demand by themselves. Tax-return movers yielded net migration of -77, although inbound movers’ average AGI was $948 higher; that reports mover mix, not durable household demand. Investors represented 4.56% of 899 purchases, a limited competition signal rather than all-cash buyer share.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss is 0.15% of building value. Address-level flood maps, insurance and mitigation quotes, lease and vacancy files, closed-sale comparables, and property condition remain necessary. Their absence prevents a property-level carrying-cost, net-yield, resale-depth or flood-cost conclusion; county evidence cannot fill those gaps.