Decatur County is a price-and-carrying-cost diligence case rather than a clear income-underwriting case. Zillow’s June 2026 median home value is $172,663, up 5.50% year over year, while FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 0.92% on its annual measure and 44.70% cumulatively over five years. These are different vintages and methods and cannot be averaged, but the slower FHFA annual reading warrants investigation by buyers relying on recent value momentum.
Measured market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed from this record. HUD’s $973 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot fill that gap. The 0.95% effective property-tax rate and $1,514 median annual tax are carrying-cost inputs, but neither ties directly to the Zillow home-value observation. Address-level rent comps, taxes, and insurance are needed before price-to-rent or cash-flow analysis.
Annual QCEW covered employment at county workplaces slipped 0.55%, and Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector, not a measure of the whole economy. Tax-return movers showed a net outflow of 15 households; inbound average income trailed outbound by $4,718. Realtor.com’s MLS listing market showed active listings down 23.53% and 8.03% price-reduced. This combines thinner visible supply with concessions, not proof of buyer demand or closed-sale pricing. Investor mortgage purchases represented 15.46% of total purchases, requiring deal-level checks on competitive bids.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.28% of building value. That county-level model is not a parcel loss estimate or insurance quote; flood zone, elevation, prior losses, and coverage need property review. No closed-sale comps, property-level flood and insurance data, vacancy or expense history, or financing terms are published in the record. Their absence prevents a supported acquisition-basis, operating-cost, and cash-flow conclusion.