Dixon County poses a price-strength versus local-depth tension: investors relying on stable tenant demand and liquid resale should be cautious, while investigators should test recent appreciation against weaker local indicators. Zillow put the county median home value at $199,605 in 2026-06, a 9.27% annual rise. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 14.62% on its own annual measure. The signals align directionally, but HPI is not a dollar home value and the methods and periods differ, so they cannot form one growth rate.
Housing economics remain unproven because measured market asking rent is not published. HUD’s $961 monthly FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate; it cannot support a gross-yield calculation. The 1.20% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input against the observed value, not a tax bill for a specific asset. Rent, operating expenses, insurance quotes and property-level tax data are not published, preventing a net-cash-flow conclusion.
Demand and buyer competition require separate checks. QCEW reported 1,692 annual average covered jobs at county workplaces in 2025, down 8.98%; this is neither resident employment nor an unemployment measure. Its covered-worker average weekly wage was $1,018, up 0.30%. Natural resources and mining was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Tax-return migration showed a net loss of 39 households, with movers leaving reporting $4,140 higher average income than entrants. Non-occupant purchase mortgages represented 17.02% of 47 purchases, a limited transaction base rather than proof of broad buyer demand.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.18%. This is a county-level modeled ratio, not a parcel loss or an insurance quote; flood zone, elevation, prior claims, deductibles and replacement cost need asset review. Realtor.com MLS figures for asking price, active listings, days on market and price reductions are not published in this record. Their absence prevents a finding on visible supply, marketing time, seller concessions or closed-sale pricing.