Dodge County presents a decision tension: Zillow’s county median home value observation labeled 2026-06 is $158,903, up 11.53%, while the FHFA repeat-transaction HPI annual observation labeled 2025 fell 0.33%. This is not a single appreciation series: FHFA is an index rather than a dollar home value, and the sources use different methods and labels. Investors whose case depends on near-term appreciation should be cautious; investigators should test closed transactions and property condition before treating either direction as durable.
No market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $973 FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent and cannot substitute for rent in a yield calculation. The 0.87% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input, but parcel assessments, exemptions, and insurance costs are not published. Realtor.com’s MLS listing market shows 45 active listings, up 36.36%, with a 77-day median marketing time, 13.72% of listings reduced, and a 20% pending ratio. These are visible asking-market and seller-concession signals, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand.
Annual QCEW covered employment at county workplaces grew 1.98% in 2025; it is not resident employment or an unemployment measure. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, which identifies employment concentration rather than the whole economy. Tax-return migration shows a net outflow, although incoming moving households had average AGI $10,001 above outgoing households. Non-occupant purchase mortgages accounted for 17 of 108 purchases, or 15.74%; that is a measurable buyer segment, not evidence of all-cash investor activity or tenant depth.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.11%; this county-level ratio does not price exposure, repair risk, or insurance for a specific parcel. The central underwriting limits are absent market rent, vacancy and lease-up evidence, operating expenses, closed-sale comparables, and property-level flood and insurance data. Those gaps prevent a supported yield calculation, a sale-price conclusion, and a property-specific resilience assessment. Next checks should obtain rent rolls and local asking-rent comps, closed sales, parcel tax treatment, flood-zone and elevation records, and insurance quotes.