Dukes County presents a high-value, low-income-visibility underwriting tension: Zillow's county median home value was $1,559,624 in 2026-06, yet no market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. This warrants investigation by buyers able to verify achieved rents, occupancy, and operating costs; income-focused buyers should be cautious. Zillow's 3.10% year-over-year value change and FHFA's 8.31% 2025 annual HPI gain both point upward, but they are separate observations: FHFA is a repeat-transaction appreciation index, not a home value, and the differing vintages and methods cannot be combined.
Carrying-cost analysis has a firm tax input but no rent denominator. The effective property-tax rate is 0.50%, and median annual property tax is $5,828. HUD's two-bedroom FMR is $2,143 per month, but it is a payment standard rather than measured asking rent; it cannot substitute for market rent or support a yield estimate. Missing achieved rents, vacancy, insurance, maintenance, and financing terms prevent a property-level cash-flow conclusion.
MLS listing-market evidence is mixed on visible supply and concessions. In 2026-06, Realtor.com showed 231 active listings, down 7.78% year over year, a 55-day median marketing time, 15.43% of listings reduced, and a 14.50% pending-to-active ratio. These are asking-market measures, not sales or standalone evidence of buyer demand. Out-movers exceeded in-movers, while average income for inbound movers exceeded that for outbound movers, a composition offset rather than proof of housing demand. Investors made 38 of 217 purchases, or 17.51%, indicating meaningful buyer participation but not their bids, ownership duration, or impact on prices.
Risk limits are material. Modeled annual climate loss equals 0.10% of building value and aligns with inland-flood exposure, but it is county-level modeled loss rather than a parcel insurance quote or damage forecast. The 2025 QCEW record reports falling annual covered employment at county workplaces alongside rising average covered-worker wages; it is neither resident employment nor an unemployment measure. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the entire economy. Next checks are address-level flood and insurance terms, market-rent and occupancy history, sale comparables, and deal-specific tax assessment.