Massachusetts rental market data

The six-metro median shows rents rising 3.0% against 2.0% home-value growth, a 0.9 percentage-point spread. The 10th-to-90th percentile range was 2.3% to 3.9% for rents and 1.4% to 3.1% for values, so both measures remained positive through those distribution bands.

Springfield paired 4.2% rent growth with 3.0% value growth, a calculated gap of 1.2 percentage points, and a 6.0% gross yield. Barnstable Town paired 3.0% rent growth with 1.1% value growth, a calculated gap of 1.9 points, but its gross yield was only 4.2%. Faster rent growth therefore does not by itself identify the stronger income entry point.

Across 14 counties, 182,377 people moved in and 197,755 moved out, producing net migration of negative 15,378. The corresponding rate was negative 2.2 per 1,000 residents. Mover income provided a modest counter-signal: aggregate incoming adjusted gross income exceeded outgoing adjusted gross income by $5,069.

Employment was also uneven. Median year-over-year job growth across six metros was negative 0.3%, with a 10th-to-90th percentile range of negative 0.6% to 1.2%. Barnstable Town was the clear named counter-signal at 2.5%, while Worcester was negative 0.03% and Springfield was negative 0.25%. Local employment evidence is therefore necessary before treating rent growth as durable demand support.

The median vacancy rate across 14 counties was 6.9%, but the 90th percentile reached 51.1%. Nantucket County had 58.3% vacancy, 28.2% renter share and 87.2% single-family share. Dukes County had 57.5% vacancy, 17.9% renter share and 93.2% single-family share; Barnstable County had 36.4% vacancy, 18.9% renter share and 86.7% single-family share. These stock profiles mean total vacancy should not be treated as available long-term rental inventory.

Tenant pressure remains material despite those high-vacancy counties. The county median share of renters paying at least 30% of income toward rent was 54.0%, with a 10th-to-90th percentile range of 48.2% to 57.2%. Barnstable County reached 59.7%. Screening should separate stock vacancy from rentable supply and test proposed rents against local household capacity.

Median gross yield across six metros was 5.3%, with a 10th-to-90th percentile range of 4.6% to 5.7%. Median rent consumed 31.0% of median household income, while the median price-to-income ratio was 5.73. Market rent was 118.3% of the two-bedroom Fair Market Rent at the median, ranging from 109.3% to 132.3% across the same percentile band.

Among the three named yield markets, Springfield had the highest gross yield at 6.0%, but also the highest rent-to-income ratio at 32.1%. Pittsfield and Worcester each showed 5.3% gross yield, with rent-to-income ratios of 27.9% and 27.1%, respectively. Springfield's revenue-to-price relationship is stronger before expenses, but its household-income measure leaves less apparent room for rent increases.

Across five metros with resale measures, median supply was 2.5 months, median marketing time was 21 days, median sale-to-list was 100.9% and the median price-drop share was 23.5%. Pittsfield was softer than that center: 4.0 months of supply, 41 days on market and a 97.7% sale-to-list ratio. Springfield showed 1.9 months, 21 days and 102.2%, respectively.

The indicators do not all point in the same direction. Springfield's price-drop share was 23.5%, above Pittsfield's 21.8%, despite Springfield's tighter inventory and stronger sale-to-list result. Permitting also varied across six metros, with the 10th-to-90th percentile rate spanning 0.89 to 2.35 permitted units per 1,000 residents. Permits do not identify unit type, completion timing or the amount that will enter the rental market, so exit and competition assumptions must remain metro-specific.

In the mutually exclusive county leading-hazard classification, inland flood was the top label for 13 counties and hurricane for one. The median FEMA climate-loss ratio across 14 counties was 0.107%, with a 10th-to-90th percentile range of 0.088% to 0.164%. These are county screening measures, not evidence that a particular parcel has the leading hazard or the countywide loss ratio.

Effective property-tax rates ranged from 0.55% at the 10th percentile to 1.43% at the 90th, with a 1.06% median and median tax of $5,123. Nantucket County paired a 0.357% climate-loss ratio with a 0.25% tax rate and $3,974 median tax. Hampden County paired a lower 0.129% loss ratio with a higher 1.49% tax rate and $4,455 median tax. Neither pairing captures insurance premiums, property condition or parcel-level mitigation.