WHAT THE STATE DISTRIBUTION SAYSAt the latest reading, the observed Zillow ZORI asking-rent index across Massachusetts’s 21 current published direct-evidence ZIP reports runs from $2,212 to $3,842, a $1,630 range around a $3,037 median. The range makes a statewide “typical rent” an incomplete starting point: the Worcester report anchors the low end of the shown reports while a Boston report anchors the high end. The practical question is therefore not simply which area has the lowest current index, but how far a local asking-rent level, household-income screen, and recent price path depart from the report-set middle. The full distribution is limited to currently published direct-evidence reports and does not represent every ZIP, neighborhood, or rental property.
Affordability screens and renter burden describe related but noninterchangeable evidence. Current ZORI asking rent divided by ACS median household income ranges from 30.0% in 02130 to 87.8% in 02119, with a 34.8% median; the corresponding annual income targets at a 30% share are $131,400 and $141,840. By contrast, the ACS share of renter households spending 30% or more of income on gross rent ranges from 39.7% to 57.8%, with a 48.6% median. A current asking-rent-to-income calculation is an illustrative market-income screen, whereas the burden statistic summarizes surveyed renter households’ gross-rent outcomes. Income, gross rent, renter-household counts, and burden are ACS 2024 five-year estimates for Census ZCTAs, statistical areas that are not identical to USPS delivery ZIPs; neither measure should be substituted for the other.
Recent momentum also should not be read as stability. In the direct monthly ZORI histories, one-year growth ranges from a 4.5% decline in Framingham to 4.5% growth in Boston, while the report-set median is 2.6% growth. Annualized volatility instead ranges from 2.4% to 5.2%, with a 3.2% median, quantifying variation in the monthly series rather than its direction. The counter-signal is apparent: the highest-volatility report is not the one with the strongest one-year growth. Worcester, for example, pairs above-median growth with below-median volatility. The historical series also record maximum drawdowns, but those backward-looking moves, category labels, and one-year rates do not forecast subsequent rents.
HUD provides a different benchmark: its two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,749 for the Worcester report and $2,311 for many other shown reports. Current ZORI-to-HUD comparisons run from 0.98× in Lowell to 1.66× in the high-end Boston report, with a 1.31× distribution median. This locates an asking-rent index relative to an administrative two-bedroom standard; it does not equate that standard with a property-level asking rent. It does not establish a specific unit’s rent, bedroom count, eligibility, or lease terms. Nor does the statewide distribution cover every Massachusetts ZIP, neighborhood, or rental property; it covers only reports with currently published direct evidence. ZIP- and ZCTA-based benchmarks therefore cannot substitute for an individual listing and lease review.
