Duval County’s decision tension is a falling Zillow value measure against an unmeasurable rental-income case and inland-flood carrying-cost uncertainty. Rental buyers should investigate lease comps and parcel flood exposure before treating the decline as value. Zillow’s county median home value was $83,959 in 2026-06, down 10.22% year over year. No market asking rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,015 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not measured asking rent, and cannot substitute.
Carrying costs deserve equal attention to the price measure. The separately reported effective property-tax rate is 1.28%, with median annual property tax of $1,148. The modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.14%, and inland flood is the dominant hazard. These county-level measures do not establish a specific property’s tax assessment, flood zone, insurance premium, or condition. With market rent absent, neither taxes nor the climate-loss model can be translated into cash flow or a cap rate.
QCEW’s 2025 annual workplace series counted 3,699 covered jobs, up 0.71%, while the average weekly wage was $810, up 3.45%. Education and health services represented 46.70% of total private covered jobs, indicating concentration in the largest disclosed private supersector rather than describing resident employment or the whole economy. Tax-return migration was negative by 29 households, and the average income gap was negative $7,172, pairing net out-migration with lower-income in-movers. The record reports no investor purchases among 28 total purchases; this is not a full measure of buyer demand or cash activity.
Risk limits are material. No FHFA annual HPI observation is supplied, so a repeat-transaction appreciation index cannot corroborate or challenge Zillow’s direction. No Realtor.com listing-price, active-listing, days-on-market, or price-reduction figures are published, preventing a read on MLS asking-price conditions, visible supply, marketing time, or seller concessions. Obtain lease comps, closed-sale comparables, parcel-level flood-zone and insurance data, condition information, and tax-assessment detail; without them, cash flow, liquidity, insurance-adjusted carrying costs, and asset-specific flood exposure remain unresolved.