Garrett County’s decision tension is a positive price signal without published market rent, alongside softer covered-job growth and a flood exposure screen. Buyers whose case depends on current cash yield should investigate rents, taxes and insurance before treating appreciation as support; those unable to obtain parcel-level flood and operating-cost evidence should be cautious. The record supports a screening thesis, not a countywide demand conclusion.
Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $343,217, up 1.53% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 2.43%; it points in the same direction, but is an index rather than a home value and is neither the same vintage nor an interval that can be averaged with Zillow’s change. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $973 per month is a payment standard, not a market asking rent. Because market rent is not published, gross yield cannot be computed. The supplied effective property-tax rate is 0.78%, a carrying-cost input that requires parcel assessment verification.
QCEW’s 2025 annual data cover jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment or unemployment. Covered employment fell 0.99%, while the covered-worker average weekly wage was $963. Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector, not a description of the full economy. Migration was net negative by 15 tax-return households, yet inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $24,354, a supplied calculation; this mix does not establish housing demand. Investors accounted for 49 of 392 purchase mortgages, or 12.5%, indicating participant presence but not their pricing power or all-cash competition. Realtor.com listing price, active listings, days on market and reduction share are not published, so MLS supply, marketing time and seller concessions cannot be read.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard. The modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.06% of building value; it is not a dollar loss estimate or proof of risk for a given parcel. Next checks are market asking rents, flood zone and insurance terms, property-specific tax bills, condition and operating costs. Their absence prevents net cash-flow underwriting, while missing MLS measures prevent a buyer-competition judgment.