Glacier County’s decision tension is a Zillow value benchmark alongside no measured market-rent evidence and separate price indicators that declined. The county median home value was $167,953 in Zillow’s 2026-06 observation, down 1.24% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI, an appreciation index rather than a home value, declined 1.99% annually while remaining 86.70% above its five-year-earlier level. These distinct vintages and methods cannot be averaged; they support caution until deal-level income and condition are verified.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. The $1,275 HUD FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent, and cannot fill that gap. Against the Zillow value, the effective property-tax rate is 0.84%, with a $1,391 median annual tax; both matter to carrying-cost review but do not establish a property’s tax bill. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.13% of building value. That county-level model should be paired with parcel flood exposure, insurance, and replacement-cost evidence.
Demand evidence is mixed rather than confirmed. Migration was net negative, and the supplied average-income gap was negative $17,627, indicating movers in had lower reported average AGI than movers out. This is not a tenant-demand measure. Investors accounted for 15.79% of recorded purchase mortgages within a total of 38, so non-owner participation exists but the transaction base is small. QCEW annual covered employment at county workplaces was unchanged; Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector, at 33.41% of private covered employment. It is neither resident employment nor a forecast.
Risk limits remain substantial. Realtor.com MLS listing-price, active-listing, days-on-market, and price-reduction figures are not published in this record, preventing a conclusion on visible supply, seller concessions, or marketing time; such measures would still be listing-market evidence rather than closed sales. Closed-sale comparables, property condition, actual rents, vacancy, operating costs, insurance quotes, and parcel-level flood review are also absent. Those gaps prevent a stabilized cash-flow conclusion and a defensible asset-specific hazard budget.