Grand County presents a decision conflict: a declining Zillow home-value reading and softer listing conditions sit beside a slightly rising FHFA index, while missing market rent blocks an income test. It merits investigation by buyers able to validate lease revenue and flood costs; buyers relying on HUD FMR or broad appreciation narratives should be cautious. County evidence is screening evidence, not a property conclusion.
At Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation, median home value was $585,610, down 2.13% year over year. Separately, FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 0.11%; it is an index rather than a home value, and its different method and vintage cannot be blended with Zillow into one appreciation rate. HUD FMR is a two-bedroom payment standard, not observed asking rent; because market rent is not published, gross yield cannot be computed. The published 0.41% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input, but insurance, debt service, and maintenance are not published.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS evidence shows 127 active listings, higher year over year, and 128 median days on market. Those figures describe visible supply and marketing time, not closed-sale prices or buyer demand by themselves. Tax-return migration had more movers leaving than entering, even though incoming movers’ average AGI exceeded outgoing movers’ by $9,369; that combination does not establish tenant demand. Non-occupants took 6 of 85 purchase mortgages, indicating investor participation without revealing property-level bidder intensity.
QCEW’s 2025 annual data recorded 6,840 average covered jobs at county workplaces, down 1.36%. This is not resident employment or unemployment. Leisure and hospitality is the largest disclosed private supersector, which identifies an important employment base rather than the whole economy. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with modeled annual loss equal to 0.13% of building value. Property-level rent, vacancy, insurance quotes, condition, sale comparables, and flood-zone and prior-loss history are missing; their absence prevents a cash-flow, exit-price, or total-risk conclusion.