Granville County is a screening case with a tension: a supplied market-rent yield passes an initial screen, while listing-market friction and inland-flood diligence could weaken that headline. Zillow's June 2026 median home value is $320,665, up 0.41%, against $1,733 monthly median asking rent and a 6.49% gross yield. FHFA's separate 2025 annual repeat-transaction index rose 2.11%, with a 60.81% five-year cumulative change. These series support different signals, not one blended growth rate or a home value. Income-property buyers should investigate; flood-exposed or liquidity-sensitive buyers should be cautious.
Rent is measured market asking rent, not HUD support: the two-bedroom FMR is $1,200, and the supplied rent/FMR comparison is 144.4%; FMR cannot substitute for a lease comp or justify the yield. The 0.67% effective property-tax rate and $1,664 median annual tax are recurring carrying costs, so the gross figure is not net. QCEW's 2025 annual data show 21,066 covered workplace jobs, up 3.77%, and a $1,201 average weekly wage, up 5.26%. Manufacturing is the largest disclosed private supersector at 30.26% of private covered jobs; that is not the whole economy.
The Realtor.com June 2026 MLS evidence shows more visible supply, longer marketing times, a meaningful price-reduced share, and a pending-to-active relationship. Those are asking-market and seller-behavior measures, not closed-sale demand. Tax-return migration was slightly positive, and average AGI of in-movers exceeded that of out-movers, a favorable demand-quality signal but not proof of population growth or future rents. Investor mortgages were a minority of total purchases, implying limited measured investor competition, though the share does not reveal local buyer identity, financing, or strategy.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard. The modeled annual building-loss ratio is a broad screen, not a property-specific flood quote, insurance premium, or guarantee against concentrated damage; reconcile it with parcel flood maps, elevation, drainage, deductibles, and coverage. Missing evidence prevents net-yield underwriting: operating expenses, vacancy, maintenance, management, financing, insurance, and property-level tax assessment are not published. Closed-sale comps, lease terms, absorption, and property condition are also missing. No metro context is supplied. The thesis is therefore a gross-income screen with a diligence burden, not a completed return case.