Grayson County’s tension is a lower Zillow home-value reading alongside a rising FHFA transaction index: basis may be resetting while repeat-sale history remains positive. Zillow’s June 2026 median home value was $160,407, down 16.90% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI, in contrast, rose 3.85% and was up 51.37% cumulatively over five years. These are different vintages and methods, not a common interval or averaged price signal. Investors able to verify asset-level basis and rents should investigate; those needing stable resale support should be cautious.
Measured market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $866 per month is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent, and cannot substitute in a yield calculation. Carrying-cost screening has an effective property-tax rate of 0.57% and a median annual tax of $930, but neither establishes a specific parcel’s tax bill. Insurance, maintenance, utilities, vacancy, and rent-comparable evidence are not published; without them, net operating income and debt-service coverage cannot be underwritten.
Tax-return data indicate a net inflow of 97 households, with inbound mover income $2,996 above outbound movers. That is household-flow evidence, not occupancy, lease-up or buyer-demand proof. Investor purchase mortgages represented 12.73% of 275 total purchases; this does not identify cash buyers, purchase pricing, or investor exit plans. No Realtor.com MLS listing-price, active-listing, days-on-market, or price-reduction figures are published, preventing a read on visible supply and seller concessions.
Inland flood is dominant, and modeled climate loss equals 0.16% of building value per year; parcel flood zone, prior losses, insurance quotes, and mitigation need review. QCEW reports annual average covered employment at county workplaces fell 3.80% in 2025, while covered-worker average weekly wage was $888, up 4.84%. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector by employment, not the entire economy. Verify flood exposure, rent and vacancy, operating costs, and sale comparables before relying on county signals.