Greeley County’s tension is a rising Zillow value measure in a thin, incompletely observed market: the June 2026 county median home value was $225,170, up 4.84% year over year. Investigators should test transaction depth and leaseability before treating that movement as durable; cautious buyers lack a published rent series, FHFA benchmark, and MLS-market read. The record does not establish how broadly the value change is reflected across properties.
Housing economics cannot yet support a yield screen. No median asking market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s monthly FMR of $961 is a payment standard, not observed asking rent, and cannot be substituted. The reported effective property-tax rate is 1.29%; median annual property tax is $1,544. Those county measures flag a carrying-cost input, but parcel assessments, insurance, financing, and operating costs are not published.
Demand evidence is mixed rather than conclusive. In the 2025 QCEW annual average, covered jobs located at county workplaces increased 2.45%; Trade, transportation, and utilities represented 37.96% of disclosed private covered employment. This is workplace employment, not resident employment or an unemployment reading. Tax-return migration showed 39 moving households in and 52 out, for net migration of negative 13; the incoming group’s average income was $475 below that of movers leaving. Purchaser competition also looks limited in this record: investor share was 0% across 11 purchase mortgages. That small purchase count describes recorded non-occupant mortgage participation, not all cash buyers or future demand.
Inland flood is the named dominant hazard, and modeled annual building-value loss is 0.23%. It is a modeled ratio, not a property loss estimate; flood-zone, elevation, insurance availability, and claim history require address-level review. No FHFA annual HPI observation is published, preventing a repeat-transaction check on Zillow’s reported direction. Realtor.com listing price, active listings, days on market, and price-reduced share are also not published, so visible MLS supply, marketing time, and seller concessions cannot be assessed.