Hamilton County presents a split underwriting case: the county-level Zillow median home value is $275,740, up 3.78% year over year, while the FHFA repeat-transaction HPI reports a 46.33% cumulative five-year gain. These are different methods and vintages: the index supports a history of appreciation but is not a home value and cannot be merged with Zillow into one growth rate. This warrants deal-level investigation, and caution where the thesis relies on resale support rather than verified cash flow.
Housing economics cannot yet establish return. No median asking market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,429 per month is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for it. The 1.00% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost check, but it does not provide operating costs, insurance, or collected rent. Underwrite lease comparables and parcel taxes before judging coverage.
Realtor.com’s MLS listing-market evidence is mixed. There were 56 active listings, median marketing time was 47 days, and 11.62% of listings carried a price reduction. These are visible asking supply, marketing time, and seller price cuts—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was net positive by 22 households, and inbound movers’ average income exceeded outbound movers’ by $30,997, a supplied calculation. Investors accounted for 3 of 59 purchases, or 5.08%, so buyer competition cannot be characterized from investor participation alone.
Risk limits are material. Expected annual climate loss equals 0.16% of building value; this is a modeled county-level measure, not a site-specific loss estimate, and it must be considered with the dominant inland-flood hazard and local insurance and mitigation terms. QCEW annual covered workplace employment fell 1.47%, while leisure and hospitality represented 49.52% of private covered jobs. This is workplace employment, not resident employment or a forecast. Missing property-level flood-zone status, insurance quotes, condition, financing, and lease comparables prevent an asset-level resilience and coverage conclusion.