New York rental market data

State research brief

Double-digit measured rent gains in three highlighted metros coexist with a 62-county net migration loss and slow resale pockets, making tenant depth and exit liquidity the decisive screens.

Updated 2026-07-31 · evidence current to the releases listed below.

The opportunity signal is concentrated rather than broad. Across measured metros, median rent growth was 5.2% in 18 observations, slightly below 5.4% median home-value growth across 23, while the median headline gross yield was 7.1%. Ogdensburg, Jamestown and Oneonta were notable exceptions: measured rent growth ranged from 11.0% to 16.8% while value growth ranged from 3.4% to 4.8%.

The demand and exit evidence argues for caution. The aggregate across all 62 counties shows a net migration loss of 71,938, or 3.6 residents per 1,000, although the median employment reading across 23 metros was positive at 0.64%. Median marketing time was 42 days, but the measured upper end reached 77 days and Auburn took 98 days. These figures support local screening, not a statewide conclusion: the packet cannot establish neighborhood tenant depth, achievable rent for a specific unit, operating expenses, insurance cost, property condition or whether a New York unit is subject to rent regulation.

01

Rent growth of 11.0% to 16.8% in three highlighted metros versus value growth of 3.4% to 4.8% → verify that current lease comparables support the apparent income momentum.

02

A 62-county net migration loss of 71,938 alongside 0.64% median metro employment growth → screen renter-household depth separately from job growth.

03

A 77-day upper-end marketing time and 6.6 months of supply → include a longer resale period and potential price concession in exit underwriting.

04

Headline yields of 8.4% to 9.4% in Ogdensburg, Corning and Elmira → advance these markets only after converting gross yield to property-level net cash flow.

05

County vacancy ranging well above 27.9% in some areas while renter burdens exceed 60% in others → use local long-term rental vacancy and tenant-income evidence rather than county averages alone.

01

Price and rent momentum

Rent growth sharply outpaced value growth in three highlighted metros

The measured metro medians were nearly aligned: rent growth was 5.2% across 18 metros and home-value growth was 5.4% across 23. The highlighted markets showed a different pattern. Ogdensburg recorded 16.8% rent growth against 4.8% value growth, Jamestown 15.0% against 4.8%, and Oneonta 11.0% against 3.4%.

Headline gross yields were 9.4% in Ogdensburg, 6.4% in Jamestown and 8.4% in Oneonta. That combination merits lease-level review, but it does not prove durable rent growth or net cash flow. Screening should use current comparable leases and should test returns without assuming that the recent rent-growth gap persists.

Evidence: Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Zillow ZORI — metro market rents

02

Employment and household movement

Positive employment readings counter a broad migration loss

Across all 62 counties, the packet records 446,620 moves in and 518,558 moves out, producing a net loss of 71,938, or 3.6 residents per 1,000. That is the clearest broad demand caution in the evidence, although it does not identify which households were renters or where within a county they moved.

Employment is a genuine counter-signal. The median annual reading across 23 metros was positive at 0.64%, and the highlighted readings were 3.03% in Cortland, 1.70% in Watertown and 1.53% in Olean. Because the employment and migration releases cover different periods and populations, they do not resolve renter demand by themselves. A property screen still needs local household formation, employer concentration and lease-up evidence.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — population · BLS CES — payroll employment · BLS LAUS — resident employment · IRS SOI — county migration and mover income

03

Supply and resale conditions

Slow exits persist even as several metros show elevated permitting

Among 21 metros with resale measures, median marketing time was 42 days, median supply was 4.2 months and 22.3% of listings had price drops. The upper measured bounds reached 77 days and 6.6 months. Auburn was slower at 98 days and a 94.9% sale-to-list ratio; Elmira took 82 days with a 96.9% ratio, while Oneonta took 77 days with a 97.5% ratio.

Permitting provides a counter-signal but not proof of completed supply. Ithaca recorded 3.37 permitted units per 1,000 residents, New York recorded 58,152 units and 2.94 per 1,000, and Kingston recorded 2.71 per 1,000, compared with a measured metro median of 1.41. Acquisition screens should therefore distinguish current resale liquidity from the permitted pipeline and allow for both a longer exit and potential future competition.

Evidence: Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts

04

Entry cost and affordability

Low entry multiples lift three headline yields above the metro median

The 23-metro median gross yield was 7.1%, with a 90th-percentile benchmark of 8.4%. Ogdensburg paired a $150,580 home value with $1,173 monthly rent for a 9.4% headline yield. Corning paired $174,315 with $1,277 for 8.8%, and Elmira paired $164,216 with $1,155 for 8.4%.

Their price-to-income ratios were 2.40 in Ogdensburg, 2.65 in Corning and 2.58 in Elmira, all below the 3.45 metro median. Rent-to-income ratios ranged from 21.8% to 23.3%, around or below the 24.0% median. These measures improve the entry screen, but gross yield excludes vacancy, maintenance, management, financing, taxes, insurance and regulatory limits on rent.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — household income · HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard · Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Zillow ZORI — metro market rents

05

Housing stock and tenant conditions

High-vacancy counties coexist with severely burdened renter markets

Countywide vacancy varied sharply across all 62 counties: the median was 11.9% and the 90th percentile was 27.9%. Hamilton County recorded 69.4% vacancy, Sullivan County 37.1% and Delaware County 36.1%. Their housing stocks were predominantly single-family, including an 84.5% share in Hamilton County. The ACS vacancy measure does not establish how many units are available, habitable or offered as long-term rentals.

Other counties combined low vacancy with heavy renter burdens. Rockland County had 4.7% vacancy and 62.5% of renters paying at least 30% of income toward rent; Putnam County had a 62.3% burden rate, and Bronx County 60.1%. Each exceeded the measured 90th-percentile burden rate of 57.2%. This can indicate a constrained renter market, but it also limits the case for aggressive rent assumptions.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock

06

Physical risk and property tax

Property-tax rates are material, while FEMA's leading label requires parcel checks

Across 62 counties, the median effective property-tax rate was 2.04% and the 90th percentile was 2.50%; the corresponding median tax bill was $4,001 and the 90th percentile was $8,401. Highlighted high rates included 2.92% in Allegany County, 2.72% in Orleans County and 2.65% in Cattaraugus County. These costs can materially reduce the spread suggested by headline gross yields.

The median FEMA loss ratio was 0.12% and the 90th percentile was 0.16%. Allegany County measured 0.25%, while Chenango County and Delaware County each measured about 0.22%. Inland flood is the mutually exclusive leading-hazard label for all 62 counties in the packet, but that county label does not establish exposure for a particular building or replace a parcel flood review and insurance quote.

Evidence: FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios · Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax

Evidence selected for New York

The ranges behind the analysis

Each row keeps its own unit and shows the measured 10th percentile, median and 90th percentile. A single-value row is labelled directly.

Price and rent momentumAre home values and asking rents moving together or separating?

Employment and household movementDo jobs, household movement and mover income point in the same direction?

Supply and resale conditionsWhat do permits, inventory, marketing time and price cuts say about pressure?

Shape of the state

Distribution before conclusion

A statewide median can hide a wide spread. These SVG charts render at build time and carry no chart library or browser-side data request.

Metro score distribution18 scored metros · median 64.0

County evidence coverageEvery gap stays visible as missing—not estimated

Highest measured metro gross yieldsscreening metric only · before expenses and financing

Metro leaderboard

Markets touching New York

Multi-state CBSAs appear in every member state. Score is still a metro score; no value is reweighted into a statewide ranking.

#	Metro	Score	Price	Rent	Yield	Jobs
1	Cortland, NY	79	$209k	$1,365	7.8%	▲ 3.0%
2	Syracuse, NY	76	$272k	$1,614	7.1%	▲ 1.2%
3	Albany, NY	75	$378k	$1,679	5.3%	▲ 0.8%
4	Watertown, NY	74	$236k	$1,467	7.4%	▲ 1.7%
5	Ogdensburg, NY	72	$151k	$1,173	9.3%	▲ 0.1%
6	Jamestown, NY	70	$182k	$972	6.4%	▲ 0.2%
7	Binghamton, NY	68	$205k	$1,348	7.9%	▲ 1.3%
8	Rochester, NY	67	$291k	$1,580	6.5%	▲ 0.4%
9	Buffalo, NY	65	$295k	$1,461	5.9%	▲ 0.6%
10	Kingston, NY	63	$451k	$2,069	5.5%	▲ 1.3%
11	Oneonta, NY	63	$221k	$1,549	8.4%	▲ 1.0%
12	Elmira, NY	61	$164k	$1,155	8.4%	▲ 0.0%

Showing the top 12 scored metros of 23. Unscored metros remain discoverable through the national rankings.

Below the metro line

Largest counties in New York

County figures join on the five-digit FIPS code. The table uses measured local values and prints “n/a” wherever a publisher has no record.

County	Population	Price	Rent	Yield	Hazard
Kings County, NY	2,631,580	$957k	$3,808	4.8%	inland flooding
Queens County, NY	2,323,052	$744k	$3,256	5.3%	inland flooding
New York County, NY	1,629,477	$1217k	$4,833	4.8%	inland flooding
Suffolk County, NY	1,530,146	$727k	$3,349	5.5%	inland flooding
Bronx County, NY	1,404,779	$500k	$2,847	6.8%	inland flooding
Nassau County, NY	1,389,591	$860k	$3,564	5.0%	inland flooding
Westchester County, NY	999,677	$879k	$3,184	4.3%	inland flooding
Erie County, NY	950,622	$304k	$1,498	5.9%	inland flooding
Monroe County, NY	753,753	$298k	$1,578	6.4%	inland flooding
Richmond County, NY	494,956	$731k	$2,702	4.4%	inland flooding
Onondaga County, NY	471,129	$289k	$1,662	6.9%	inland flooding
Orange County, NY	406,616	$470k	$2,256	5.8%	inland flooding

County yield sample49/62counties have the rent needed to compute yield

Statewide net migration−71,938IRS tax-return households summed across counties

Median investor share8.4%among counties with HMDA purchase records

Published city evidence

Go from New York to a city record

These links exist only where an official Census place, direct city price and rent series, and a checked city brief are all available.

City · NYNew York$823k home · $4,133 rent · 6.0% yield City · NYBuffalo$251k home · $1,430 rent · 6.8% yield City · NYYonkers$703k home · $2,754 rent · 4.7% yield City · NYRochester$252k home · $1,532 rent · 7.3% yield City · NYSyracuse$226k home · $1,546 rent · 8.2% yield City · NYAlbany$336k home · $1,611 rent · 5.8% yield City · NYNew Rochelle$953k home · $2,974 rent · 3.7% yield City · NYSchenectady$334k home · $1,489 rent · 5.3% yield City · NYUtica$213k home · $1,365 rent · 7.7% yield City · NYBinghamton$194k home · $1,322 rent · 8.2% yield

Sources used in this analysis

Measured releases, not a global source count

Only sources supporting the selected evidence modules are listed here.

Bear case

What can break the thesis

Rent-growth coverage includes 18 metros while value-growth coverage includes 23, so the two medians are not matched observations.
Migration, employment, rents and listings come from different release periods and populations; their apparent tension may reflect timing or measurement rather than a single current condition.
Metro and county distributions can conceal neighborhood-level demand, unit condition and property-specific liquidity.
Headline gross yields omit operating expenses, financing and New York rent-regulation status, which the packet does not identify.
A county's leading FEMA hazard and loss ratio do not establish parcel exposure or the insurance premium for a specific property.

Investor questions

Before underwriting a property

Are rents broadly rising faster than home values?

Not at the measured medians. Rent growth was 5.2% across 18 metros versus 5.4% value growth across 23, although Ogdensburg, Jamestown and Oneonta showed substantial rent-growth leads.

Does the migration loss prove rental demand is falling?

No. The 62-county aggregate lost 71,938 net movers, but median metro employment still grew 0.64%. The packet does not identify renter household formation or neighborhood lease demand.

Which highlighted resale markets require the largest liquidity allowance?

Auburn had 98 median days on market and a 94.9% sale-to-list ratio; Elmira had 82 days and 96.9%; Oneonta had 77 days and 97.5%.

Do the lower entry prices establish attractive cash flow?

They establish only headline potential. Ogdensburg, Corning and Elmira showed gross yields of 9.4%, 8.8% and 8.4%, respectively, before vacancy, taxes, insurance, maintenance, management, financing and regulation.

Does the inland-flood label mean every property is exposed?

No. Inland flood is the mutually exclusive leading-hazard label for all 62 counties in this packet; it is not a parcel-level exposure finding.