New York rental market data

The direct state recent-lease rent measure increased from $1,966 to $2,018, a 2.6% gain. Separately, the Vacancy Index declined by 1 percentage point to 3.6%, while rental time on market fell from 26.7 to 24.7 days. Rent growth exceeded the national series by 3.7 percentage points; state vacancy was 3.6 percentage points lower and marketing time was 5.3 days shorter.

The agreement among the three measures supports a tight state-level rental screen. They remain distinct series with different coverage, however, and cannot show whether a specific metro, property type or price point has the same occupancy and lease-up conditions.

County migration coverage is complete across all 62 counties, and the totals show 71,938 more people moving out than moving in. The rate was negative 3.6 per 1,000 residents. That is a meaningful counter-signal to the current rental tightness, although the migration period and rental period do not coincide.

Employment was not uniformly weak. Across 23 measured metros, year-over-year job growth had a 0.6% median and ranged from about 0.01% at the 10th percentile to 1.49% at the 90th. Cortland, NY, Watertown, NY, and Olean, NY posted measured gains of 3.0%, 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively. Local employment evidence can therefore offset the migration concern in some screens, but it does not erase the aggregate outflow.

Across the measured distributions, metro asking-rent growth had a 5.2% median among 18 metros, while home-value growth had a 5.4% median among 23. The supplied difference was negative 0.2 percentage points. At that level, rents were broadly keeping pace with prices rather than creating a clear statewide yield expansion.

Several highlighted markets were much less balanced. Ogdensburg, NY, recorded 16.8% rent growth against 4.8% price growth; Jamestown, NY, recorded 15.0% against 4.8%; and Oneonta, NY, recorded 11.0% against 3.4%. Their supplied gross yields were 9.4%, 6.4% and 8.4%, respectively. Because these are asking rents and gross yields, screening should verify achieved rents, concessions, vacancy and operating costs rather than capitalize the recent growth rates directly.

Resale conditions are widely dispersed. Across 21 measured metros, the 10th-to-90th percentile range was 12 to 77 days on market, 2.4 to 6.6 months of supply and 17.6% to 28.6% of listings with price drops. Auburn, NY, was slower still at 98 days, with 5.5 months of supply, a 25.1% price-drop share and a 94.9% sale-to-list ratio. Elmira, NY, and Oneonta, NY, also had marketing times of 82 and 77 days.

Permitting is uneven in both scale and intensity. The median across 23 metros was 186 permitted units, while New York, NY, recorded 58,152, or 2.94 per 1,000 residents. Ithaca, NY, recorded 352 permits but a higher rate of 3.37 per 1,000. Permits are authorizations, not completed units or confirmed rental supply, so they identify where additional construction screening is needed rather than establish future competition.

Across all 62 counties, the median share of renters paying at least 30% of income toward rent was 48.4%, with a 10th-to-90th percentile range of 41.5% to 57.2%. The highlighted burdens were higher in Rockland County at 62.5%, Putnam County at 62.3% and Bronx County at 60.1%. This limits what current tightness alone can establish about room for additional rent increases.

ACS housing vacancy is a different concept from the Apartment List Vacancy Index. Hamilton County had 69.4% total housing vacancy and an 84.5% single-family share; Sullivan County and Delaware County had vacancy rates of 37.1% and 36.1%. These figures can include units outside the active rental market and cannot be treated as available apartments. Property-level screening needs usable rental inventory, seasonal status and condition data that the county totals do not provide.

Measured effective property-tax rates across 62 counties had a 2.04% median and ranged from 1.40% at the 10th percentile to 2.50% at the 90th. The highlighted rates were 2.92% in Allegany County, 2.72% in Orleans County and 2.65% in Cattaraugus County. That dispersion can materially change net income even where gross rent and acquisition price appear attractive.

FEMA classified inland flood as the mutually exclusive leading-hazard label in all 62 counties, but the label does not mean every parcel has flood exposure. The highlighted FEMA loss ratios were 0.25% in Allegany County and 0.22% in both Chenango County and Delaware County. These county measures support local insurance and site-risk review; they do not replace parcel-level flood, elevation, building-condition or coverage analysis.