Hill County’s tension is a softer Zillow county value reading against a positive FHFA transaction index, with a measurable gross-rent screen but uncertain liquidity and flood exposure. Investors able to validate parcel flood conditions, operating costs and closed sales should investigate; those relying on county medians or quick resale should be cautious. Zillow reports a $236,185 median home value, down 0.96%, while the FHFA annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 3.26%. The supplied observation labels, vintages and methods differ; neither series confirms the other or can be combined into one appreciation rate.
Measured median asking rent is $1,105 per month, supporting the published 5.61% gross yield before costs. This is market rent; HUD FMR is a two-bedroom payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate or a yield substitute. The effective property-tax rate is 1.16%, with median annual tax of $2,078. County median price and rent need not describe the same property, so the record supports a gross revenue screen, not net yield or cash flow.
Realtor.com MLS evidence indicates a listing market that needs transaction-level checking: median marketing time is 80 days, 18.28% of listings have price reductions, and the pending-to-active ratio is 30.79%. These are asking-market measures of visible supply, marketing time and concessions, not closed-sale prices or standalone proof of buyer demand. Annual QCEW covered workplace employment grew 2.70%; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole county economy. Tax-return migration was net positive by 249 households, with incoming average income $17,087 above outgoing. Nonoccupants accounted for 3.77% of 424 purchase mortgages, limiting observed investor competition but not measuring cash purchases.
Inland flood is dominant, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.11%; this county-level loss ratio is not a parcel estimate or insurance quote. No closed-sale comps, vacancy, lease turnover, insurance premiums, repair/capital costs, debt terms, or parcel flood-zone/elevation data are published. These gaps prevent conclusions on acquisition discount, net cash flow, debt coverage, or flood insurability. Next, reconcile target-home taxes and rents, obtain insurance and flood determinations, and test prices against recent closed comparables.