Holmes County presents a split underwriting frame: a $189,067 Zillow county median home value in 2026-06 was down 1.66% year over year, while FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI, which is not a home value, rose 9.36% in 2025 and 74.85% over its stated five-year measure. Investors seeking a lower entry value should investigate whether income can carry the asset; those relying on appreciation should be cautious. These are different methods and labeled periods, so they cannot be combined into one growth rate.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,078 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent and cannot fill that gap. The effective property-tax rate is 0.54%, with $600 median annual tax; both matter to carrying costs but do not supply operating expenses. The modeled climate loss ratio is 0.40% of building value expected lost per year. Hurricane exposure makes parcel-specific elevation, construction, insurance terms, and deductibles material.
Demand evidence is modest rather than conclusive. Tax-return migration records a net inflow of 113 households, and inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $4,372. That is positive mover-income selection, not proof of tenant demand. QCEW annual average covered employment at county workplaces grew 0.08%; it is neither resident employment nor a forecast. Trade, transportation, and utilities, the largest disclosed private supersector, represents 23.22% of private covered jobs, creating an observable employment concentration rather than a description of the entire economy. Investor participation was 1.54% of 130 recorded purchases. That limited nonowner share does not establish the intensity of cash-buyer or owner-occupant competition.
Realtor.com listing measures—median MLS asking price, active listings, median days on market, and price-reduced share—are not published here. Their absence prevents a read on visible supply, marketing time, asking-price competition, or seller concessions; these would not be closed-sale proof in any event. Missing closed-sale comps, achievable market rent, vacancy, operating expenses, insurance quotes, and property condition prevents valuation, gross-yield, net-income, and hurricane-cost underwriting. Next checks are parcel-level hazard and insurance review, rent evidence, and MLS plus closed-sale verification.