States / Florida
State rental intelligence

Florida rental market data

A source-traced view across 26 metro markets and 67 counties. State figures below are labelled medians and totals—not a made-up statewide investment score.

24/26 metros scored67/67 counties with FEMA risk14 sources used in this analysis
Median scored metro29.5out of 100 · 24 measured metros
Florida identity diorama showing regional landscape, cities, housing, and infrastructure
Median metro home value$341kmedian across published metro values
Median metro rent$1,861monthly · published metro values
Median gross yield6.7%annual rent ÷ price · before costs
Median job trend▲ 0.2%trailing 12-month metro employment
Direct monthly rental evidence

Florida rent market dynamics

Apartment List measures recent leases, rental vacancy and listing time separately. These figures do not replace Zillow, Census or Realtor measures elsewhere on this page.

Recent-lease rent$1,5062026-07 · ▼ 2.0% year over year
Rental Vacancy Index7.6%2026-07 · −0.1 pp in 12 months
Time on market28 days2026-07 · +0 days in 12 months
US recent-lease rent$1,3882026-07 · ▼ 1.1% year over year
Rent and rental vacancy through timesolid state series · dashed national series · no interpolation across missing observations
Recent-lease rent$1,701$1,351$1,000Rental Vacancy Index8.4%5.3%2.2%2017-012021-102026-07FloridaUnited States
State research brief

A 3.4-percentage-point median gap between rising metro rents and falling home values is Florida’s central tension, while a 2.0% decline in the separate recent-lease state series makes achieved-rent verification decisive.

Updated 2026-08-08 · evidence current to the releases listed below.

Across 26 measured metros, the median home-value change was a 2.2% decline; among 24 with rent growth data, the median rent change was a 1.1% increase. That spread can improve price-to-rent screening if local rents are attainable, but the distributions are wide: metro value changes ran from -5.0% at the 10th percentile to 0.3% at the 90th, while rent changes ranged from -0.7% to 2.6%.

The counter-signal is Florida’s separate Apartment List recent-lease series: rent fell 2.0%, vacancy remained about 7.6%, and listing time increased 0.3 day. Resale conditions, nearly flat median job growth, county housing differences and uneven hazard costs reinforce the need for locality-level screening. The packet can identify markets for deeper review; it cannot establish a property’s achieved rent, tenant demand, insurance cost, parcel exposure or net return.

01

Median metro rent growth of 1.1% versus a 2.2% home-value decline → screen for repriced entry opportunities, but verify that local achieved rents support the apparent spread.

02

Apartment List recent-lease rent down 2.0% with vacancy near 7.6% → do not assume statewide rent growth or omit concessions from underwriting.

03

Median resale conditions of 4.2 months of supply, 69 days on market and 30.3% price drops → test negotiated purchase prices rather than relying on list prices.

04

Net migration of 55,518 alongside median metro job growth of 0.2% → treat household movement as supportive context, not proof of durable local rental demand.

05

County loss ratios and effective tax rates show material dispersion → obtain parcel-specific insurance and reassessed-tax inputs before comparing yields.

01
Price and rent momentum

Rents outpaced values at the midpoint, not in every metro

The median measured metro had home values down 2.2% and market rents up 1.1%, a supplied difference of 3.4 percentage points. The tails matter: value growth ranged from -5.0% to 0.3% between the 10th and 90th percentiles, while rent growth ranged from -0.7% to 2.6%. The midpoint therefore describes a screening environment, not every Florida locality.

Crestview paired 2.8% rent growth with a 0.5% value decline, and Key West paired 2.8% rent growth with a 0.8% value decline. Pensacola was a counterexample in which both increased: rent rose 2.7% and value rose 1.0%. Their supplied gross yields were 5.4%, 4.1% and 6.7%, respectively, showing that similar rent momentum can sit alongside materially different entry economics.

Evidence: Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Zillow ZORI — metro market rents

02
Direct state rental dynamics

Recent leases push back on the metro rent signal

Apartment List’s Florida recent-lease rent was $1,506, down from $1,537, or 2.0%. Its Vacancy Index eased by 0.1 percentage point to 7.6%, while its separate time-on-market series rose from 28.0 to 28.3 days. Falling recent-lease rent despite slightly lower vacancy is a genuine counter-signal to the positive Zillow metro rent median.

Florida’s rent decline was 0.9 percentage point greater than the supplied national decline, and its vacancy rate was 0.4 percentage point higher, although time on market was 1.7 days shorter. These rent, vacancy and listing-time series have distinct coverage and should not be averaged with each other or blended with Zillow rent, Redfin resale time or Census vacancy. For screening, use the disagreement to require current achieved-rent and concession evidence.

Evidence: Apartment List Rent Estimates — recent-lease rent index · Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity · Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy

03
Supply and resale conditions

Resale negotiating room coexists with active permitting

Among 24 measured metros, the median resale market had 4.2 months of supply, 69 days on market, price drops on 30.3% of listings and a 96.7% sale-to-list ratio. Okeechobee stood at 167 days and 7.2 months of supply, Key West at 109 days and 6.7 months, and Sebastian at 95 days and 4.8 months. Their sale-to-list ratios ranged from 94.1% to 95.5%, indicating room between asking and closing prices in those measured markets.

Permitted units were also uneven, with a median of 7.81 per 1,000 residents across 26 metros. The Villages registered 29.54, Punta Gorda 17.51 and Ocala 16.25. Punta Gorda still had 4.3 months of resale supply and price drops on 32.9% of listings; Ocala had 4.1 months and 31.6%. Active permitting and resale negotiating room can therefore coexist, but these figures do not establish future rental competition or delivery schedules.

Evidence: Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts

04
Employment and household movement

Positive household movement meets nearly flat metro job growth

The migration data report 734,244 movers in and 678,726 out across 67 counties, for net migration of 55,518, or 2.5 per 1,000 residents. Aggregate incoming mover income exceeded outgoing mover income by $1.25 million. This is a positive household-movement signal, but it does not identify how many movers rent, where they settled or what housing they require.

Current metro employment is less forceful: the median year-over-year change across 26 metros was 0.2%, with the 10th-to-90th-percentile range running from -1.1% to 1.5%. The Villages, Clewiston and Ocala were stronger at 2.8%, 2.3% and 1.6%, respectively. Because the migration and employment series cover different periods and populations, local payroll and renter-formation checks remain necessary.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — population · BLS CES — payroll employment · BLS LAUS — resident employment · IRS SOI — county migration and mover income

05
Housing stock and tenant conditions

High rent burdens limit headroom, while broad vacancy can mislead

Across 67 counties, the median share of renters spending at least 30% of income on rent was 56.0%; the 10th-to-90th-percentile range was 45.5% to 62.7%. Osceola County, St. Lucie County and Broward County each exceeded 65%, while their ACS vacancy rates ranged from 12.9% to 16.7%. Heavy burden can constrain rent increases, but it does not by itself show delinquency, turnover or unit-level affordability.

ACS vacancy is broader than rental vacancy. Walton County, Franklin County and Monroe County had overall housing-vacancy rates of 43.9%, 42.2% and 37.3%, while single-family homes represented 60.1%, 72.6% and 65.0% of their stocks. Without vacancy reasons, seasonality or long-term-rental availability, those figures cannot be treated as available rental inventory.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock

06
Physical risk and property tax

Hazard-loss and tax burdens vary enough to change property-level math

The median FEMA expected-loss ratio across 67 counties was 0.24%, with a 10th-to-90th-percentile range of 0.16% to 0.41%. Gulf County, Indian River County and Monroe County were higher at 0.55%, 0.52% and 0.47%. FEMA assigns one mutually exclusive leading-hazard label to each county: hurricane for 43, inland flood for 23 and strong wind for 1. Those labels characterize county-level leading hazards, not parcel exposure.

The median measured effective property-tax rate was 0.72%, ranging from 0.55% to 0.84% between the 10th and 90th percentiles; median tax was $1,858. Alachua County, Broward County and St. Lucie County had rates of 0.96%, 0.94% and 0.93%. The packet has no insurance premiums, flood-zone details, elevation, building condition or parcel-level hazard data, so its gross yields cannot be read as net operating returns.

Evidence: FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios · Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax

State ZIP rental intelligence

How direct rental evidence varies inside Florida

The distribution uses 35 current published ZIP reports across 16 cities and 11 counties. Twelve measured counter-signals are shown below; this is not a statewide neighborhood ranking.

Published ZIP rent range$1,348$3,647full direct-ZORI report cohort
Median rent / income35.3%annual asking rent ÷ ACS household income
Median one-year growth▼ 0.3%exact direct Zillow endpoints
Renter households covered330,464across published ZCTA matches
01 · RENT DISPERSIONRepresentative direct ZIP ZORI
Horizontal bars compare direct Zillow asking-rent indexes for the twelve representative published ZIP reports.33133$3,64733032$2,64332034$2,55233025$2,45433125$2,34133837$2,09633647$1,86232839$1,60532256$1,56732607$1,53733614$1,51832304$1,348
02 · AFFORDABILITY PRESSURERent / income × observed burden
Horizontal position is annual Zillow asking rent divided by ACS median household income. Vertical position is the ACS share of renter households paying thirty percent or more.72.1%62.5%52.9%43.3%33.7%322563230433025331253283933614336473260733032331333203433837Annual asking rent / ACS household income →ACS renter burden share →
03 · PATH QUALITYOne-year growth × variability
Each point compares exact one-year Zillow asking-rent growth with annualized variability from the direct monthly series.8.2%6.4%4.6%2.8%1.0%322563230433025331253283933614336473260733032331333203433837Exact one-year Zillow rent growth →Annualized monthly variability →
WHAT THE STATE DISTRIBUTION SAYS

Florida’s current published direct-evidence distribution spans 35 ZIP reports, rather than every Florida ZIP, neighborhood, or rental property. In the June 2026 Zillow ZORI ZIP release, observed asking-rent index levels range from $1,348 to $3,647, a $2,299 spread, around a $1,887 median. That dispersion makes a state shorthand less useful than asking which report is the relevant local comparison and whether a household can absorb its current asking-rent level. For a renter, the practical use is to set a local comparison and budget screen before interpreting history or benchmarks. The state distribution uses all current published direct-evidence reports; the displayed rows illustrate its measured extremes and renter-household coverage. ZORI supports price-level and change comparisons, not a particular unit’s lease terms.

Affordability screening and renter burden answer related but different questions. Across the reports, the direct asking-rent index divided by ACS median household income has a 35.3% median and spans 20.4% in ZIP 33647 to 62.5% in ZIP 33125. This is a current asking-rent-to-income screen, not a count of renter households actually crossing a burden threshold. Separately, ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA estimates put renter households paying 30% or more of income toward gross rent at a 59.5% median, spanning 36.2% to 69.6%. These are survey estimates for statistical ZCTAs rather than USPS delivery ZIPs, so the two measures should not be treated as interchangeable or geographically identical. They also cannot identify which individual renters face a current advertised price.

Rent momentum is a direct monthly Zillow-series question, not a volatility reading. The distribution’s one-year median change is -0.3%, while ZIP 32034 rose 13.2% and ZIP 33032 fell 4.4%. The latter’s annualized volatility is 7.2%, compared with a statewide low of 2.0%, and its maximum drawdown is -5.6%. Growth describes net change over the stated horizon; volatility and drawdown describe variation and historical retreat. A larger observed change does not, by itself, indicate a larger monthly fluctuation. These different series outputs should be read together without projecting the next period’s move.

HUD provides a different benchmark. The FY 2026 two-bedroom HUD FMR/SAFMR comparison has a 100.3% median asking-to-HUD ratio across these reports, with a 73.7% to 170.1% range. It gauges how a broad asking-rent index sits against an administrative bedroom standard; it is neither direct asking rent nor a property’s contract rent. Because the two inputs are not unit-matched, the ratio cannot establish an exact difference for a specific home. The available fields also do not identify a property’s bedroom count, condition, utilities, concessions, signed lease rent, or other terms that affect effective rent, so they do not support property-level quality claims.

Representative direct evidence

Twelve useful contrasts, every one traceable

The statewide summaries use all 35 qualifying reports. The table preserves measured extremes in rent, affordability, burden, momentum, volatility and the HUD benchmark gap.

ZIP reportPlaceZillow rent1Y growthRent / incomeBurden 30%+VariabilityHUD 2BR gap
32256Jacksonville$1,567▼ 0.3%25.6%49.2%2.6%▲ 78.3%
32304Tallahassee$1,348▲ 1.5%50.0%63.8%3.0%▲ 99.7%
33025Miramar$2,454▼ 2.0%42.8%66.2%2.0%▲ 105.2%
33125Miami$2,341▲ 0.7%62.5%59.7%4.3%▲ 100.3%
32839Orlando$1,605▼ 1.5%40.7%64.7%3.1%▲ 86.8%
33614Tampa$1,518▼ 2.0%36.3%60.9%3.6%▲ 73.7%
33647Tampa$1,862▼ 2.1%20.4%53.5%2.6%▲ 74.2%
32607Gainesville$1,537▼ 0.1%40.1%69.6%3.5%▲ 102.9%
33032Homestead$2,643▼ 4.4%43.2%60.4%7.2%▲ 113.3%
33133Miami$3,647▲ 2.9%42.3%55.4%3.4%▲ 156.3%
32034Fernandina Beach$2,552▲ 13.2%31.1%59.3%3.4%▲ 170.1%
33837Davenport$2,096▲ 2.3%30.9%36.2%3.2%▲ 140.0%
READ BEFORE USING

Zillow ZORI is an observed asking-rent index from its published ZIP series. It is not a record of every listing, signed lease, concession, utility arrangement, or bedroom configuration, so it cannot determine rent for a specific available or occupied property.

ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA figures are survey estimates for statistical areas that do not exactly match USPS delivery ZIPs. The statewide distribution contains only current published direct-evidence ZIP reports; it is not an inventory of every Florida ZIP, neighborhood, rental unit, or property.

SOURCE LEDGERCensus ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and incomeACS 2024 5-year ZCTA · pulled 2026-08-08HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallbackZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rentsZORI ZIP 2026-06 · pulled 2026-08-08
Evidence selected for Florida

The ranges behind the analysis

Each row keeps its own unit and shows the measured 10th percentile, median and 90th percentile. A single-value row is labelled directly.

Price and rent momentumAre home values and asking rents moving together or separating?
10th pct.median90th pct.Home-value change-5.0%-2.2%0.3%Asking-rent change-0.7%1.1%2.6%Rent minus price3.4%
Supply and resale conditionsWhat do permits, inventory, marketing time and price cuts say about pressure?
10th pct.median90th pct.Permits / 1k2.77.815.7Months of supply3.8×4.2×7.0×Days on market47 days69 days94 daysListings with cuts23.6%30.3%33.8%
Employment and household movementDo jobs, household movement and mover income point in the same direction?
10th pct.median90th pct.Job change-1.1%0.2%1.5%Net migration / 1k2.5Net household movement55,518
Shape of the state

Distribution before conclusion

A statewide median can hide a wide spread. These SVG charts render at build time and carry no chart library or browser-side data request.

Metro score distribution24 scored metros · median 29.5
40–191820–39240–59060–79080–100
County evidence coverageEvery gap stays visible as missing—not estimated
66%44/67Rent100%67/67Climate100%67/67Migration
Highest measured metro gross yieldsscreening metric only · before expenses and financing
Clewiston9.2%Punta Gorda7.6%Sebring7.6%Okeechobee7.5%Homosassa Springs7.5%Lakeland7.4%Port St. Lucie7.3%
Metro leaderboard

Markets touching Florida

Multi-state CBSAs appear in every member state. Score is still a metro score; no value is reweighted into a statewide ranking.

#MetroScorePriceRentYieldJobs
1The Villages, FL47$389k$1,7515.4%▲ 2.8%
2Pensacola, FL41$312k$1,7456.7%▲ 0.7%
3Lakeland, FL38$299k$1,8487.4%▲ 1.3%
4Orlando, FL38$387k$1,9726.1%▲ 0.7%
5Ocala, FL37$274k$1,5997.0%▲ 1.6%
6Crestview, FL35$442k$1,9875.4%▲ 0.4%
7Gainesville, FL33$306k$1,6756.6%▲ 0.4%
8North Port, FL32$404k$2,1326.3%▲ 1.2%
9Tallahassee, FL32$287k$1,5136.3%▲ 0.2%
10Deltona, FL31$332k$1,7956.5%▲ 0.5%
11Homosassa Springs, FL31$274k$1,7087.5%▲ 0.6%
12Jacksonville, FL30$354k$1,7085.8%▼ 0.4%

Showing the top 12 scored metros of 26. Unscored metros remain discoverable through the national rankings.

Below the metro line

Largest counties in Florida

County figures join on the five-digit FIPS code. The table uses measured local values and prints “n/a” wherever a publisher has no record.

CountyPopulationPriceRentYieldHazard
Miami-Dade County, FL2,738,356$523k$2,8866.6%hurricane
Broward County, FL1,977,129$424k$2,5177.1%inland flooding
Palm Beach County, FL1,533,806$473k$2,6626.8%hurricane
Hillsborough County, FL1,522,748$380k$2,0256.4%hurricane
Orange County, FL1,471,937$405k$1,9555.8%inland flooding
Duval County, FL1,023,153$297k$1,6166.5%inland flooding
Pinellas County, FL963,481$372k$2,0216.5%hurricane
Lee County, FL817,666$338k$1,8746.6%hurricane
Polk County, FL790,694$299k$1,8487.4%hurricane
Brevard County, FL632,780$344k$1,9146.7%hurricane
Pasco County, FL611,444$332k$2,0297.3%inland flooding
Volusia County, FL579,622$327k$1,7626.5%hurricane
County yield sample44/67counties have the rent needed to compute yield
Statewide net migration+55,518IRS tax-return households summed across counties
Median investor share7.2%among counties with HMDA purchase records
Bear case

What can break the thesis

  1. The positive Zillow metro rent median and negative Apartment List state rent series measure different markets and coverage; either can misrepresent a particular property’s achievable rent.
  2. Coverage is incomplete for some locality measures: metro rent growth covers 24 of 26 metros, county rent covers 44 of 67 counties, and county listing measures cover 59 counties.
  3. Migration data and current employment data cover different periods, and tax-return movers are not equivalent to new renter households.
  4. ACS housing vacancy does not isolate available long-term rentals or explain seasonal, recreational and other vacant units.
  5. FEMA county labels and loss ratios do not establish parcel exposure, while the packet omits insurance premiums and other operating costs that can erase a gross-yield advantage.
Investor questions

Before underwriting a property

Is Florida rent growth currently positive or negative?

The evidence is mixed. Zillow’s median measured metro rent change was +1.1% among 24 metros, while Apartment List’s separate statewide recent-lease rent series was -2.0%. They should be evaluated separately and checked against current property-level leases.

Where does the packet show the clearest resale negotiating room?

Okeechobee had 167 days on market and 7.2 months of supply; Key West had 109 days and 6.7 months; Sebastian had 95 days and 4.8 months. Their sale-to-list ratios were between 94.1% and 95.5%, but property condition and submarket inventory are not provided.

Does positive migration establish strong rental demand?

No. The packet reports net migration of 55,518, but median metro job growth was only 0.2%, and the series cover different periods. It does not identify renter formation, destination neighborhoods or required unit types.

Do high ACS vacancy rates identify weak rental counties?

Not by themselves. ACS vacancy covers the broader housing stock and does not isolate long-term rental availability or vacancy reasons, so figures for Walton County, Franklin County and Monroe County require tenure and seasonality checks.

Can the supplied gross yields be used as expected returns?

No. They are price-and-rent screening measures. The packet does not supply property insurance, maintenance, management, financing, parcel hazard, vacancy loss or reassessed-tax costs needed for a net-return calculation.