The Villages, FL
The Villages merits investigation by buyers who prioritize employment momentum and positive migration, but investors dependent on scarce new supply or a high entry yield should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
The Villages merits investigation by buyers who prioritize employment momentum and positive migration, but investors dependent on scarce new supply or a high entry yield should avoid it. Jobs rose 2.83%, while tax filings show 8,009 households moved in and 4,998 moved out.
The opportunity is improving rent and a modest price pullback: asking rent increased 2.13% as home values declined 1.3%. Yet the $388,596 median value and 5.41% gross yield leave limited room before expenses, vacancies, financing, and property-specific flood costs.
The central risk is competition from construction. Permitting reached 29.54 units per thousand residents, and the supply component scored 1. Buyers should verify neighborhood-level inventory, achievable rent, insurance, and flood exposure before treating metro-wide demand as support for a specific property.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
Does migration provide a clear demand signal?
What does the price-and-rent combination imply for underwriting?
How much investor participation is visible?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep The Villages as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 100 | 30% | 30.00 |
| Rent trend | 30 | 25% | 7.50 |
| Affordability | 33 | 15% | 4.95 |
| Supply pressure | 1 | 15% | 0.15 |
| Climate risk | 28 | 15% | 4.20 |
| Published score | 47 | ||
Job growth of 2.83% -> employment is the clearest supportive demand signal, but the record does not show which industries or tenant groups produced it.
Asking rent rose 2.13% to $1,751 while the two-bedroom fair-market rent was $1,328 -> recent rent movement is positive, but underwriting should use property-level achievable rent rather than assume the metro median applies.
A $388,596 median value equals 5.08 times median household income, while rent consumes 27.46% of income -> tenant affordability appears less strained than purchase affordability, though neither measure captures a particular neighborhood or unit.
There were 4,236 permits, or 29.54 per thousand residents -> a substantial development pipeline could give renters more alternatives and limit occupancy or rent performance for undifferentiated properties.
The annual climate loss ratio is 0.183%, with inland flood identified as the dominant hazard -> water exposure requires parcel-level review because the metro ratio cannot determine an individual building's insurance cost or expected loss.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- New supply could absorb demand: permitting totals 4,236 units, so existing rentals may face more competition even with positive migration.
- The 5.41% gross yield is calculated before operating expenses, vacancies, financing, insurance, and repairs, leaving the net return unreported.
- Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the metro-wide loss ratio does not reveal whether a target parcel has materially higher exposure.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like The Villages
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Villages, FL (Target) | 47 | $389k | $1,751 | 5.4% | ▲ 2.8% |
| Traverse City, MI | 71 | $427k | $1,960 | 5.5% | ▲ 2.5% |
| Daphne, AL | 53 | $376k | $1,702 | 5.4% | ▲ 2.3% |
| Yuba City, CA | 55 | $434k | $2,011 | 5.6% | ▲ 2.1% |
| State College, PA | 79 | $356k | $1,809 | 6.1% | ▲ 2.3% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |