All homes and bedroom counts
RENTAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
The Villages, FL
The Villages merits investigation by buyers who prioritize employment momentum and positive migration, but investors dependent on scarce new supply or a high entry yield should avoid it.
Median price$389k
Median rent$1,751
Gross yield5.4%
Job growth▲ 2.8%
Composite Market ScoreRank #313 of 571 scored US market areas
Direct rental answer
How much is rent in The Villages, FL?
Zillow's metro-wide Observed Rent Index is $1,751 per month for 2026-06-30. That is up 2.13% from a year earlier.
Occupied rental units paying rent
Two-bedroom standard
These figures are not averaged together. Zillow and Realtor describe asking-rent markets, ACS measures rent paid by surveyed households, and HUD publishes administrative bedroom standards.
Exact county schedules
HUD rent benchmarks inside The Villages
Every row keeps its own county FIPS schedule. No county is selected as a metro proxy and no synthetic metro FMR is calculated.
| County | Studio | 1 BR | 2 BR | 3 BR | 4 BR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumter County, FLFIPS 12119 | $1,076 | $1,139 | $1,328 | $1,655 | $1,937 |
The read
Why this market scores where it does
The Villages merits investigation by buyers who prioritize employment momentum and positive migration, but investors dependent on scarce new supply or a high entry yield should avoid it. Jobs rose 2.83%, while tax filings show 8,009 households moved in and 4,998 moved out.
The opportunity is improving rent and a modest price pullback: asking rent increased 2.13% as home values declined 1.3%. Yet the $388,596 median value and 5.41% gross yield leave limited room before expenses, vacancies, financing, and property-specific flood costs.
The central risk is competition from construction. Permitting reached 29.54 units per thousand residents, and the supply component scored 1. Buyers should verify neighborhood-level inventory, achievable rent, insurance, and flood exposure before treating metro-wide demand as support for a specific property.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
Does migration provide a clear demand signal?
Tax-filing data show 8,009 households moved in and 4,998 moved out, producing net migration of 3,011. Incoming movers had average income of $105,954 versus $89,980 for outgoing movers, a published gap of $15,974. These figures support investigation of renter demand, but the record does not identify whether movers rented, bought, or selected the investor's target submarket.
What does the price-and-rent combination imply for underwriting?
The median home value was $388,596 and median asking rent was $1,751 per month, corresponding to a published gross yield of 5.41%. Home values fell 1.3% year over year while asking rents rose 2.13%. That combination improves the entry picture at the metro level, but property taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, financing, and net yield are not published.
How much investor participation is visible?
Non-occupants represented 7.78% of purchase mortgages, and total purchases were 3,125. The record does not provide cash-purchase investor activity, neighborhood concentrations, prior-period investor share, or investor resale behavior, so it cannot establish whether competition from investors is rising or concentrated around a target property.
Investor Quick Takeaways
Gross Yield: 5.4%
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Rent Momentum: ▲ 2.13%
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Investor Activity: 7.8%
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Climate Exposure: FEMA NRI
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Put the evidence to work
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep The Villages as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
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Market pulse
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Months of supplyn/aRedfin unavailable
Median days on marketn/aRedfin unavailable
Listings with price dropsn/aRedfin unavailable
Sale-to-list ration/aRedfin unavailable
Home value growth▼ 1.3%Zillow ZHVI · trailing 12 months
Rent growth▲ 2.13%Zillow ZORI · trailing 12 months
Gross rental yield5.4%Rent × 12 ÷ price
Payroll job growth▲ 2.8%CES · 12m to 2026-06
Release-to-release evidence
What actually changed
This comparison exists because at least one underlying source period advanced. Rebuilding the same data never creates a new observation.
Published score held steady47→47
0 ptsThe published component scores did not move in this release.
Weights were unchanged at metro-2026-07-v2-omb2023, so the movement comes from refreshed evidence and percentile ranks.
The named source periods advanced, but the measured values on this page held steady.
Composite breakdown
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
Published arithmeticComponent × weight = points
47| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 100 | 30% | 30.00 |
| Rent trend | 30 | 25% | 7.50 |
| Affordability | 33 | 15% | 4.95 |
| Supply pressure | 1 | 15% | 0.15 |
| Climate risk | 28 | 15% | 4.20 |
| Published score | 47 | ||
The Villages, FL scoreRank #313
47Job growth100/100
Job growth of 2.83% -> employment is the clearest supportive demand signal, but the record does not show which industries or tenant groups produced it.
Rent trend30/100
Asking rent rose 2.13% to $1,751 while the two-bedroom fair-market rent was $1,328 -> recent rent movement is positive, but underwriting should use property-level achievable rent rather than assume the metro median applies.
Affordability33/100
A $388,596 median value equals 5.08 times median household income, while rent consumes 27.46% of income -> tenant affordability appears less strained than purchase affordability, though neither measure captures a particular neighborhood or unit.
Supply pressure1/100
There were 4,236 permits, or 29.54 per thousand residents -> a substantial development pipeline could give renters more alternatives and limit occupancy or rent performance for undifferentiated properties.
Climate risk28/100
The annual climate loss ratio is 0.183%, with inland flood identified as the dominant hazard -> water exposure requires parcel-level review because the metro ratio cannot determine an individual building's insurance cost or expected loss.
The numbers
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
ZHVI Median Price
$389k
YoY ▼ 1.3%
ZORI Median Rent
$1,751
YoY ▲ 2.13%
Gross Rental Yield
5.4%
Rent × 12 ÷ price
$1,751 × 12 ÷ $388,596
Job Growth (YoY)
▲ 2.8%
CES payrolls
Job signal 100/100
Median Household Income
$77k
Census ACS 5-year
Rent Burden
27.5%
Annual rent ÷ household income
Price-to-Income
5.1x
Median value ÷ household income
HUD 2BR Fair Market Rent
$1,328
Market rent 131.8% of FMR
Historical affordability context
Compare aligned 2019 and 2024 asking-rent and nominal household-income endpoints across the direct-overlap metro set.
Independent rent evidence
One market, several legitimate rent benchmarks
These releases observe different homes and different moments. RentMarker keeps them separate: ZORI remains the scoring baseline, while the other sources test how sensitive the market story is to bedroom mix and measurement method.
Monthly benchmark4 of 4 reported values
Zero-based scale$1,751Primary RentMarker baseline
2026-06-30
All homes and bedroom counts
A smoothed metro rent index for observed rentals; it is the primary rent used by RentMarker scores and career ratios.
View source release ↗$1,139−$612 vs ZORI
FY2026 FMR
One-bedroom standard
An administrative gross-rent benchmark used by HUD programs; it is neither a listing median nor a prediction of one lease.
View source release ↗$1,328−$423 vs ZORI
FY2026 FMR
Two-bedroom standard
An administrative gross-rent benchmark used by HUD programs; it is neither a listing median nor a prediction of one lease.
View source release ↗$1,269−$482 vs ZORI
ACS 2024 5-year
Occupied rental units paying rent
A five-year survey estimate of contract rent plus applicable tenant-paid utilities; it is not a current asking-rent index.
View source release ↗Take the next step
Keep The Villages as context, then replace market-wide evidence with the candidate property's facts.
Regional price level
What feels expensive inside The Villages
BEA compares each category with the United States, which equals 100. This is a 2024 price-level comparison—not annual inflation.
BEA Regional Price Parities · 2024US = 100
Occupation wage lens
How asking rent sits against major local occupations
Annualized Zillow asking rent is divided by each BLS annual median wage. This is a screening ratio for one wage, not a household budget or affordability verdict.
Six largest published major groupsannual rent ÷ median wage
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations$34,380 median wage
61.1%
Office and Administrative Support Occupations$43,790 median wage
48.0%
Sales and Related Occupations$35,620 median wage
59.0%
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations$77,110 median wage
27.2%
Construction and Extraction Occupations$47,240 median wage
44.5%
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations$37,430 median wage
56.1%
Supply pipeline
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
National supply context
Compare this authorization pipeline with asking-rent growth, jobs and for-sale liquidity across the evidence-complete metro set.
Building permits by structure type
units per year · latest year annualised
4,044 units authorised in 2026, 0% of them in 5+ unit buildings. This is a single-family building cycle, so the competition is other houses, not new apartments. ✓ recomputed from series
Who is arriving, and who is buying
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
Net Household Move
+3,011
8,009 in vs 4,998 out (IRS SOI)
▲ 37.6% of arriving households
Mover Income Gap
+$15,974
Arriving $105,954 vs leaving $89,980
Average AGI per tax return (IRS SOI)
Investor Purchase Share
7.8%
243 of 3,125 originated purchase loans
CFPB HMDA 2024
Dominant Hazard
inland flooding
0.183% building value annual loss ratio
FEMA NRI · risk type: water
Compare yield and FEMA exposure →Households arrive mainly from: Lake County · Marion County · Polk County · Orange County · Hillsborough County
✓ 8,009 in − 4,998 out = 3,011 netDirect market links
Where tax-return households moved from and to
These are the largest flows where both counties map to a RentMarker market area. They are a documented subset of the all-US IRS totals above.
Leading inbound markets
- Orlando, FL1,066 arriving
- Tampa, FL578 arriving
- Ocala, FL484 arriving
Leading outbound markets
- Orlando, FL899 leaving
- Ocala, FL530 leaving
- Tampa, FL357 leaving
The other side
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- New supply could absorb demand: permitting totals 4,236 units, so existing rentals may face more competition even with positive migration.
- The 5.41% gross yield is calculated before operating expenses, vacancies, financing, insurance, and repairs, leaving the net return unreported.
- Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the metro-wide loss ratio does not reveal whether a target parcel has materially higher exposure.
Inside this metro area
Move from the market-area average to local evidence
Use the available county and city pages to add local price, rent, housing, migration and hazard context to the market-area view.
County records
Statistical peers
Market areas that behave like The Villages
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Market area | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Villages, FL (Target) | 47 | $389k | $1,751 | 5.4% | ▲ 2.8% |
| Traverse City, MI | 71 | $427k | $1,960 | 5.5% | ▲ 2.5% |
| Daphne, AL | 53 | $376k | $1,702 | 5.4% | ▲ 2.3% |
| Yuba City, CA | 55 | $434k | $2,011 | 5.6% | ▲ 2.1% |
| State College, PA | 79 | $356k | $1,809 | 6.1% | ▲ 2.3% |
Provenance
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income and gross rent | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-08-05 |
| Census ACS 5-year — historical household income | direct | ACS 2019 and 2024 5-year | 2026-08-05 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Apartment List Rent Estimates — recent-lease rent index | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| BEA County Personal Income — income and population | direct | 2024 County Personal Income (released 2026-02-05); history 1969-2024 | 2026-08-03 |
| BEA Regional Price Parities — metropolitan price levels | direct | 2024 Regional Price Parities (released 2026-02-19); history 2008-2024 | 2026-08-03 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS OEWS — occupation employment and wages | direct | May 2025 OEWS estimates (released 2026-05-15) | 2026-08-03 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2021-2025; latest 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-08-02 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA | 2026-08-08 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI history 1975-2025; latest 2025 | 2026-08-02 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD CHAS — renter burden by HAMFI income band | direct | HUD CHAS 2018-2022 ACS 5-year (released 2025-12-23) | 2026-08-03 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD-USPS ZIP-to-county residential-address crosswalk | direct | HUD-USPS 2026Q1 | 2026-08-09 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-30 | 2026-08-06 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-08-06 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Realtor.com Rental Report — top-50 asking rents | direct | top-50 rental asking rents 2026-05 | 2026-08-05 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply | direct | ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03 | 2026-08-12 |
| USDA ERS — Rural-Urban Continuum Codes | direct | USDA ERS 2023 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes | 2026-08-02 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI - metro market rents, not seasonally adjusted | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_month.csv | 2026-08-15 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-08-08 |