Hillsborough’s county file presents a current-price-versus-index tension rather than a clean direction. In Zillow’s county observation for 2026-06, the median home value fell 2.56% year over year; FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 1.66%. These are different vintages and methods and cannot be blended. The relevant investigation is whether a property’s current income can support carrying costs; the record is less supportive of a thesis that treats either measure alone as a sale-price trend.
The Zillow median value is $380,041, while published median asking rent is $2,025 per month and stated gross yield is 6.39% before costs. This is measured market asking rent, not HUD rent. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent or a substitute for the yield calculation. The effective property-tax rate is 0.81%; insurance, financing, HOA fees, maintenance, vacancy and property-specific assessments are not published, preventing a net-yield conclusion.
Realtor.com’s MLS snapshot for 2026-06 shows 6,037 active listings, down 10.58% year over year, while its median listing price fell 4.55%. Marketing evidence is mixed: median days on market were 63, 26.86% of listings had reductions, and the pending-to-active ratio was 39.29%. These are asking-price, visible-supply and marketing measures—not closed sales or standalone proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was modestly positive, with higher average AGI among in-movers than out-movers. The reported 7.59% investor share is calculated against total purchases, but its definition is limited to non-occupant purchase mortgages and does not establish cash-buyer competition.
Hurricane is the dominant hazard, and modeled climate loss equals 0.17% of building value per year; this is a modeled loss ratio, not a property insurance quote. QCEW’s 2025 annual workplace-based covered employment grew 0.75%, while average weekly covered-worker wages grew 3.66%. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole county economy; QCEW is neither resident employment nor unemployment. Neighborhood-level insurance quotes, flood-zone and elevation data, building condition, lease renewals, vacancy, closed-sale comparables and debt terms are not published, preventing net-operating, hazard-cost and exit-value underwriting.