Pasco County presents an underwriting tension: a softening home-value signal alongside rent that may support a gross screen, but inland-flood exposure can change carrying costs. Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $331,852 and was lower year over year. That merits property-level investigation by an investor with insurance and expense data, and caution for anyone treating county yield as durable cash flow. The record is county-specific, not representative of Tampa, Florida, and not a closed-sale appraisal.
Market rent is separate from HUD: the $2,029 median asking rent is above the $1,977 HUD two-bedroom Fair Market Rent, a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate. The supplied 7.34% gross yield is annual market rent before vacancy, repairs, management, insurance, financing, or taxes. The effective property-tax rate is 0.73%, with a $2,206 median annual bill. FHFA’s separate 2025 repeat-transaction HPI declined 2.56%, directionally consistent with Zillow’s direction, but it is an appreciation index, not a home value; its vintage and method remain separate from Zillow’s observation.
Demand and competition are mixed. QCEW’s 2025 annual average shows 150,229 covered jobs located in the county and a $1,120 average weekly covered-worker wage; these are workplace measures, not resident employment or unemployment. The largest disclosed private supersector is Trade, transportation, and utilities. Tax-return migration was net inward, and average income per moving household favored in-movers by a supplied $14,170 gap. Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS snapshot shows active supply, 66 median days on market, and 25.88% of listings with price reductions. These are visible-supply, marketing-time, and seller-concession signals, not closed prices or proof of demand.
Risk limits are material. The modeled annual building-loss ratio is 0.18%, with inland flood dominant; it is not an insurance quote or property-level flood determination. The supplied investor share is 7.36% of 13,226 total purchases, so broad investor demand is unproven. Next checks are parcel-level flood and elevation review, binding insurance quotes, lease and vacancy evidence, closed-sale comparables, and a full expense and financing budget. No insurance premium, operating expense, financing term, or closed-sale data is published; without them, net cash flow, debt coverage, and whether gross yield survives costs cannot be established.