Jack County’s decision tension is an apparently flat recent Zillow county value reading against a stronger, earlier FHFA appreciation reading, while listing-market liquidity looks softer. The Zillow median home value was $238,616 in 2026-06, up 0.45% year over year; FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 11.98% in 2025. These are different vintages and methods: the HPI measures repeat-sale appreciation, not a home value, so they cannot be combined. Income-oriented and resale-sensitive buyers should verify current closed comparables and lease evidence rather than treat either series as a sale-price conclusion.
Realtor.com MLS evidence shows the median listing price down 9.09% year over year, active listings down 30.77%, and median marketing time at 73 days, up 33.64%. Asking-price softness and longer exposure are seller-side listing signals, not closed-sale evidence or proof of buyer demand. Income underwriting is constrained: no county market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. The $973 two-bedroom HUD FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent. An effective property-tax rate of 0.98% and median annual tax of $2,453 establish carrying-cost inputs, but insurance, maintenance, and property-level assessments are not published.
Demand evidence is mixed. Tax-return migration shows more households moving in than out and a higher average AGI for incoming movers, but that does not establish tenancy demand or a resident labor trend. QCEW reports annual covered employment at county workplaces declining while the average covered-worker wage rose; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector. Only 1 of 67 purchase mortgages went to non-occupants, a 1.49% investor share. That limited participation reduces evidence of mortgage-financed investor competition, but total purchase volume is small and does not describe cash buyers.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.15% of building value; it is not a property-specific loss history. Underwriters should obtain flood-zone, insurance-quote, claim, elevation, condition, lease, and closed-comparable evidence. Those gaps prevent a yield conclusion, a dependable exit-price conclusion, and parcel-level hazard costing; county data cannot resolve them.