King George County presents a valuation-versus-income tension: the June 2026 Zillow median home value is $480,115 against measured median asking rent of $1,852 per month and a stated 4.63% gross yield. It warrants investigation by buyers able to validate parcel expenses and tenant depth, while those relying on headline appreciation or turnkey cash flow should be cautious. The rent is market asking evidence; acquisition basis, lease-up performance, and closed-sale pricing are not published here.
Carrying costs sharpen that tension. Gross yield is annual market rent before property tax, insurance, vacancy, maintenance, financing, or management, so net yield cannot be established. The effective property-tax rate is 0.53%, but county-level tax data do not determine a specific parcel’s bill. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot replace the measured rent. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 6.32% year over year; it is an index rather than a home value, and its annual vintage differs from the Zillow observation.
MLS listing evidence looks softer than an appreciation-only read: Realtor.com active listings were 95, up 41.04% year over year, and median listing price was down 3.56%. The 16.75% price-reduced share signals seller concessions, but listings are asking-market evidence, not closed-sale outcomes or standalone proof of buyer demand. A calculated net inflow of 119 tax-return households coincided with incoming average AGI lower by a calculated $11,077 than outgoing households. Investor mortgages accounted for 1.68% of 416 purchases, recording limited non-occupant mortgage participation rather than all investor or buyer competition.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, while modeled climate loss equals 0.13% of building value per year; that ratio is not a property-specific insurance quote or dollar loss. QCEW is annual covered employment at county workplaces, not resident employment or an outlook; it requires employer, commute, and tenant-income checks. Missing flood-zone and insurance information, property-level taxes, closed sales, vacancy, and rent-by-unit data prevent a defensible net-cash-flow, exit-price, and hazard-cost conclusion.