WHAT THE STATE DISTRIBUTION SAYSWithin Virginia's 33 current published direct-evidence ZIP reports, Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) values range from $1,258 in ZIP 23803 (Petersburg) to $2,844 in ZIP 20147 (Ashburn), a $1,586 spread around the $1,998 median. This wide range makes the practical question less about a single state figure and more about which published ZIP's current asking-rent level fits a household's budget screen and tolerance for rent movement. This is a distribution of current Zillow direct-evidence ZIP reports, not every state ZIP, neighborhood, or rental property; use it to establish a comparison range rather than a universal local price. The published-report boundary also limits comparisons for places absent from the current direct series.
Affordability and renter burden are related but not interchangeable checks. Current asking-rent-to-ACS median-income ratios range from 20.8% in ZIP 22192 to 37.0% in ZIP 23224, with a 26.6% median. That calculation pairs a current observed asking-rent index with an ACS five-year ZCTA median-income estimate, making it a household-budget screen rather than an estimate of renter hardship. In contrast, the ACS share of renter households paying thirty percent or more of income toward gross rent ranges from 40.9% in 22209 to 59.6% in 23462, with a 50.3% median. The first measure combines an area median with current asking rent; the second describes a surveyed distribution of renter households. Neither replaces the income, recurring housing costs, and lease terms facing a particular household.
Momentum adds another, distinct decision lens: growth and volatility are calculated from the direct monthly Zillow series, not from ACS or HUD figures. The one-year rent change has a 4.2% median but extends from a 2.8% decline in 22304 to 10.1% growth in 23513. Growth alone does not establish a smooth historical path. Annualized volatility ranges from 1.8% in 23462 to 4.4% in 22801, against a 2.6% median. Thus, a report with strong recent growth and one with uneven month-to-month movement need not be the same place, and no historical category determines future pricing. Treat the measures as retrospective descriptions of the published series, not forecasts of the next lease or market outcome.
HUD supplies a separate reference: its FMR/SAFMR bedroom standard is administrative, not an observed asking rent. Across the published reports, the ZORI-to-HUD comparison runs from 76.0% to 147.3%, with a 102.3% median. That relationship can frame a benchmark check, but it is not evidence that a unit's market asking rent should equal the HUD amount. A ZIP-level ZORI index and a HUD bedroom standard cannot determine a particular property's advertised price, lease terms, bedroom fit, program eligibility, or availability. Confirm the actual listing, the relevant bedroom standard, and any applicable administrative rule before using either figure in a housing decision. These measures support comparison, not property-level valuation or qualification.
