Virginia rental market data

Median asking-rent growth was 4.9% across 13 measured metros, while median home-value growth was 2.2% across 14. The supplied difference is 2.7 percentage points. Rent growth ran from 1.8% at the 10th percentile to 7.2% at the 90th, compared with -0.4% to 3.8% for home values.

The separation is visible in specific markets: Bluefield posted 9.3% rent growth and a 0.4% value decline; Danville recorded 7.5% rent growth and 2.0% value growth; Kingsport recorded 6.0% and 1.2%, respectively. Their measured gross yields were 6.5%, 8.0% and 6.6%. That makes rent-value divergence useful for initial screening, but asking-rent and home-value indexes do not show lease renewals, concessions, occupancy or cash net operating income.

Median job growth across 14 metros was -0.09%, with a 10th-to-90th percentile range of -2.3% to 0.9%. Across all 133 county-level areas, 327,505 people moved in and 326,897 moved out. The resulting net inflow was 608, equal to 0.07 per 1,000 residents. Those readings do not provide broad demand confirmation for the faster rent growth.

There are counter-signals. Aggregate mover income flowing in exceeded income flowing out by $638,766, and employment grew 1.2% in Kingsport, 0.9% in Charlottesville and 0.8% in Harrisonburg. These measured pockets keep local demand screens relevant, but the employment, migration and rent series cover different geographies and periods, so their combination cannot establish that household movement caused rent growth.

The median measured metro had 2.7 months of supply, 21 days on market and a 98.6% sale-to-list ratio. Yet the respective 90th-percentile readings reached 5.1 months of supply and 58.6 days on market. Bluefield was slower still at 8.1 months, 63 days and a 94.4% sale-to-list ratio; Danville had 5.2 months, 60 days and a 96.3% ratio.

Permitting and current inventory also need separate treatment. Harrisonburg and Richmond each had only 1.4 months of supply even with permitting rates of 8.34 and 7.38 units per 1,000 residents; their median marketing times were 17 and 16 days. Winchester had 2.9 months of supply and 46 days on market. Permits measure authorized construction rather than completed or rental units, so they cannot by themselves establish future rental competition or exit liquidity.

Across 14 measured metros, the median home value was $321,895, median asking rent was $1,625 and median gross yield was 6.0%. Gross yields ranged from 5.2% at the 10th percentile to 7.4% at the 90th. The median rent-to-income measure was 26.1%, while the median asking-rent-to-Fair-Market-Rent ratio was 113.1%.

Danville paired a $170,415 value with $1,133 rent, an 8.0% gross yield and a 27.3% rent-to-income measure. Martinsville paired $137,457 with $874, producing a 7.6% yield and 21.0% rent-to-income measure. Blacksburg's measured yield was 6.8%, but its rent-to-income measure was 30.2%. These are useful entry screens, not returns: gross yield omits vacancy, maintenance, taxes, insurance, financing and transaction costs.

Across 133 county-level areas, median housing vacancy was 12.1%, median renter share was 25.3% and the median share of renters spending at least 30% of income on rent was 45.3%. The vacancy distribution was wide, from 4.9% at the 10th percentile to 25.7% at the 90th.

King William County combined a 4.9% vacancy rate and 11.1% renter share with 72.4% rent burden. Buchanan County had 27.0% vacancy, a 16.9% renter share and 66.5% rent burden. Highland County's vacancy rate was 46.2%, but its renter share was only 11.1% and its single-family share was 82.5%; Northumberland County showed a similar mismatch at 37.6%, 13.9% and 88.1%. Overall vacancy therefore should not be treated as available rental inventory. The median county stock year was 1981, but the packet does not identify vacancy type or property condition.

Inland flood is the mutually exclusive leading-hazard label for 122 county-level areas, hurricane for 10 and coastal flood for one. The median expected hazard-loss ratio was 0.11%, rising to 0.18% at the 90th percentile. Accomack County, Bland County and Craig County had measured ratios of 0.29%, 0.29% and 0.28%, respectively.

The median effective property-tax rate was 0.60%, compared with 0.91% at the 90th percentile. Manassas Park city measured 1.17% with a $4,636 median tax, Manassas city 1.09% with $4,923 and Portsmouth city 1.04% with $2,557. Taxes and hazard-loss ratios therefore require separate underwriting. A county's leading-hazard label and expected-loss ratio do not establish parcel exposure, flood zone, building mitigation or insurance cost.