All homes and bedroom counts
RENTAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Winchester, VA
Winchester merits investigation by income-focused buyers who can accept thin job growth and a high entry price; buyers requiring strong employment momentum or easy affordability should avoid it.
Median price$392k
Median rent$1,965
Gross yield6.0%
Job growth▲ 0.3%
Composite Market ScoreRank #183 of 571 scored US market areas
Direct rental answer
How much is rent in Winchester, VA?
Zillow's metro-wide Observed Rent Index is $1,965 per month for 2026-06-30. That is up 4.58% from a year earlier.
Occupied rental units paying rent
Two-bedroom standard
These figures are not averaged together. Zillow and Realtor describe asking-rent markets, ACS measures rent paid by surveyed households, and HUD publishes administrative bedroom standards.
Exact county schedules
HUD rent benchmarks inside Winchester
Every row keeps its own county FIPS schedule. No county is selected as a metro proxy and no synthetic metro FMR is calculated.
| County | Studio | 1 BR | 2 BR | 3 BR | 4 BR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick County, VAFIPS 51069 | $1,133 | $1,255 | $1,573 | $1,965 | $2,639 |
| Winchester city, VAFIPS 51840 | $1,133 | $1,255 | $1,573 | $1,965 | $2,639 |
| Hampshire County, WVFIPS 54027 | $1,133 | $1,255 | $1,573 | $1,965 | $2,639 |
The read
Why this market scores where it does
Winchester merits investigation by income-focused buyers who can accept thin job growth and a high entry price; buyers requiring strong employment momentum or easy affordability should avoid it. Median asking rent is $1,965, gross yield is 6.01%, and rent grew 4.58% year over year.
The opportunity is rent performance alongside positive household movement: 4,369 households moved in versus 3,696 out. The tension is that jobs grew only 0.32%, while the median home value is $392,195 and price-to-income is 4.65 times. That combination offers income potential without a strong labor or affordability cushion.
Supply is not clearly loose: months of inventory is 2.9, yet 26.87% of listings had price drops. Buyers should verify achievable rent against the published fair-market benchmark, review property-level flood exposure, and avoid assuming recent rent growth will offset acquisition or insurance costs.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
Is household migration positive?
Yes. The record shows 4,369 households moving in and 3,696 moving out, for net migration of 673.
How does asking rent compare with fair-market rent?
Median asking rent is $1,965 versus $1,573 for fair-market rent; subtracting the latter from the former gives a $392 gap.
How much purchase-mortgage activity is investor-related?
Non-occupants represented 12.16% of purchase mortgages; the record also reports 2,262 total purchases.
Investor Quick Takeaways
Gross Yield: 6.0%
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Rent Momentum: ▲ 4.58%
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Investor Activity: 12.2%
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Climate Exposure: FEMA NRI
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Put the evidence to work
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Winchester as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
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Market pulse
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Months of supply2.9 mo.▲ from 2.4 mo. a year ago
Median days on market46 days▲ from 43 days a year ago
Listings with price drops26.9%▲ from 24.6% a year ago
Sale-to-list ratio99.0%2026-05-01
Home value growth▲ 1.6%Zillow ZHVI · trailing 12 months
Rent growth▲ 4.58%Zillow ZORI · trailing 12 months
Gross rental yield6.0%Rent × 12 ÷ price
Payroll job growth▲ 0.3%CES · 12m to 2026-06
Release-to-release evidence
What actually changed
This comparison exists because at least one underlying source period advanced. Rebuilding the same data never creates a new observation.
Published score held steady57→57
0 ptsThe published component scores did not move in this release.
Weights were unchanged at metro-2026-07-v2-omb2023, so the movement comes from refreshed evidence and percentile ranks.
The named source periods advanced, but the measured values on this page held steady.
The one chart
Rents versus prices, indexed to 2019
Both series start at 100. The gap between the lines is the investment case, and which line is closing it tells you what kind of market this is.
Reindexed Price vs. Rent Growth
2019 = 100 · annual · 2019–2026
Since 2019, prices are up 51% and rents 55%. Rents running ahead of prices is what lifts yield. ✓ recomputed from series
Composite breakdown
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
Published arithmeticComponent × weight = points
57| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 59 | 30% | 17.70 |
| Rent trend | 68 | 25% | 17.00 |
| Affordability | 30 | 15% | 4.50 |
| Supply pressure | 36 | 15% | 5.40 |
| Climate risk | 84 | 15% | 12.60 |
| Published score | 57 | ||
Winchester, VA scoreRank #183
57Job growth59/100
Job: CES employment grew 0.32% year over year -> buyers have only modest job growth as a demand cushion.
Rent trend68/100
Rent: median asking rent rose 4.58% to $1,965, above the $1,573 fair-market rent, with a 6.01% gross yield -> rental income is the strongest operating signal, but achievable rent needs verification.
Affordability30/100
Affordability: home value is 4.65 times median income and rent absorbs 27.97% of income -> both acquisition pricing and renter budgets require scrutiny.
Supply pressure36/100
Supply: 2.9 months of inventory, 932 permits, and 26.87% price drops -> limited current listings coexist with permitting activity and pricing friction.
Climate risk84/100
Climate: modeled annual building-value loss is 0.1014%, and inland flood is the dominant hazard -> property-level flood exposure and insurance costs remain unpublished.
The numbers
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
ZHVI Median Price
$392k
YoY ▲ 1.6%
ZORI Median Rent
$1,965
YoY ▲ 4.58%
Gross Rental Yield
6.0%
Rent × 12 ÷ price
$1,965 × 12 ÷ $392,195
Job Growth (YoY)
▲ 0.3%
CES payrolls
Job signal 59/100
Median Household Income
$84k
Census ACS 5-year
Rent Burden
28.0%
Annual rent ÷ household income
Price-to-Income
4.7x
Median value ÷ household income
HUD 2BR Fair Market Rent
$1,573
Market rent 124.9% of FMR
Historical affordability context
Compare aligned 2019 and 2024 asking-rent and nominal household-income endpoints across the direct-overlap metro set.
Independent rent evidence
One market, several legitimate rent benchmarks
These releases observe different homes and different moments. RentMarker keeps them separate: ZORI remains the scoring baseline, while the other sources test how sensitive the market story is to bedroom mix and measurement method.
Monthly benchmark4 of 4 reported values
Zero-based scale$1,965Primary RentMarker baseline
2026-06-30
All homes and bedroom counts
A smoothed metro rent index for observed rentals; it is the primary rent used by RentMarker scores and career ratios.
View source release ↗$1,255−$710 vs ZORI
FY2026 FMR
One-bedroom standard
An administrative gross-rent benchmark used by HUD programs; it is neither a listing median nor a prediction of one lease.
View source release ↗$1,573−$392 vs ZORI
FY2026 FMR
Two-bedroom standard
An administrative gross-rent benchmark used by HUD programs; it is neither a listing median nor a prediction of one lease.
View source release ↗$1,358−$607 vs ZORI
ACS 2024 5-year
Occupied rental units paying rent
A five-year survey estimate of contract rent plus applicable tenant-paid utilities; it is not a current asking-rent index.
View source release ↗Take the next step
Keep Winchester as context, then replace market-wide evidence with the candidate property's facts.
Regional price level
What feels expensive inside Winchester
BEA compares each category with the United States, which equals 100. This is a 2024 price-level comparison—not annual inflation.
BEA Regional Price Parities · 2024US = 100
Occupation wage lens
How asking rent sits against major local occupations
Annualized Zillow asking rent is divided by each BLS annual median wage. This is a screening ratio for one wage, not a household budget or affordability verdict.
Six largest published major groupsannual rent ÷ median wage
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations$44,150 median wage
53.4%
Office and Administrative Support Occupations$45,380 median wage
52.0%
Sales and Related Occupations$35,580 median wage
66.3%
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations$31,400 median wage
75.1%
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations$84,680 median wage
27.8%
Business and Financial Operations Occupations$78,980 median wage
29.9%
Supply pipeline
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
National supply context
Compare this authorization pipeline with asking-rent growth, jobs and for-sale liquidity across the evidence-complete metro set.
Building permits by structure type
units per year · latest year annualised
932 units authorised in 2026, 0% of them in 5+ unit buildings. This is a single-family building cycle, so the competition is other houses, not new apartments. ✓ recomputed from series
Who is arriving, and who is buying
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
Net Household Move
+673
4,369 in vs 3,696 out (IRS SOI)
▲ 15.4% of arriving households
Mover Income Gap
+$9,667
Arriving $75,691 vs leaving $66,024
Average AGI per tax return (IRS SOI)
Investor Purchase Share
12.2%
275 of 2,262 originated purchase loans
CFPB HMDA 2024
Dominant Hazard
inland flooding
0.101% building value annual loss ratio
FEMA NRI · risk type: water
Compare yield and FEMA exposure →Households arrive mainly from: Loudoun County · Fairfax County · Berkeley County · Warren County · Prince William County
✓ 4,369 in − 3,696 out = 673 netDirect market links
Where tax-return households moved from and to
These are the largest flows where both counties map to a RentMarker market area. They are a documented subset of the all-US IRS totals above.
Leading inbound markets
- Washington, DC1,603 arriving
- Hagerstown, MD307 arriving
- Harrisonburg, VA40 arriving
Leading outbound markets
- Washington, DC820 leaving
- Hagerstown, MD586 leaving
- Cumberland, MD49 leaving
The other side
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- CES job growth was only 0.32%, leaving the investment case with limited measured labor momentum.
- The $392,195 median value and 4.65 price-to-income ratio make acquisition affordability weak, while the 6.01% gross yield excludes unreported expenses.
- Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the record does not publish property-level exposure or insurance costs.
Inside this metro area
Move from the market-area average to local evidence
Use the available county and city pages to add local price, rent, housing, migration and hazard context to the market-area view.
Statistical peers
Market areas that behave like Winchester
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Market area | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winchester, VA (Target) | 57 | $392k | $1,965 | 6.0% | ▲ 0.3% |
| Keene, NH | 54 | $399k | $1,756 | 5.3% | ▲ 0.1% |
| Gainesville, GA | 41 | $393k | $1,678 | 5.1% | ▲ 0.3% |
| Rochester, MN | 50 | $345k | $1,695 | 5.9% | ▲ 0.4% |
| Midland, TX | 43 | $331k | $1,620 | 5.9% | ▲ 0.3% |
Provenance
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income and gross rent | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-08-05 |
| Census ACS 5-year — historical household income | direct | ACS 2019 and 2024 5-year | 2026-08-05 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Apartment List Rent Estimates — recent-lease rent index | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| BEA County Personal Income — income and population | direct | 2024 County Personal Income (released 2026-02-05); history 1969-2024 | 2026-08-03 |
| BEA Regional Price Parities — metropolitan price levels | direct | 2024 Regional Price Parities (released 2026-02-19); history 2008-2024 | 2026-08-03 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS OEWS — occupation employment and wages | direct | May 2025 OEWS estimates (released 2026-05-15) | 2026-08-03 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2021-2025; latest 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-08-02 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA | 2026-08-08 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI history 1975-2025; latest 2025 | 2026-08-02 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD CHAS — renter burden by HAMFI income band | direct | HUD CHAS 2018-2022 ACS 5-year (released 2025-12-23) | 2026-08-03 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD-USPS ZIP-to-county residential-address crosswalk | direct | HUD-USPS 2026Q1 | 2026-08-09 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-30 | 2026-08-06 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-08-06 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Realtor.com Rental Report — top-50 asking rents | direct | top-50 rental asking rents 2026-05 | 2026-08-05 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply | direct | ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03 | 2026-08-12 |
| USDA ERS — Rural-Urban Continuum Codes | direct | USDA ERS 2023 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes | 2026-08-02 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI - metro market rents, not seasonally adjusted | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_month.csv | 2026-08-15 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-08-08 |