Counties / Virginia / Frederick County

Frederick County, VA

FIPS 51069 · population 95,008 · part of Winchester, VA

$434k
Zillow home value · 2026-06
The numbers

What this county costs and earns

Everything here joins on the county FIPS code, so each figure comes from the agency that publishes it with no name matching in between.

Zillow home value
$434k
▲ 1.1% year over year
Zillow ZHVI · direct
Median asking rent
$2,256
▲ 5.0% year over year
Zillow ZORI · direct
Gross yield
6.2%
annual rent ÷ price, before costs
derived: rent × 12 ÷ price ✓
HUD 2-bed standard
$1,573
market rent is 1.43x the standard
HUD Fair Market Rent · direct
Independent price check

Do two methods point the same way?

Zillow estimates a current home value. FHFA tracks repeat mortgage transactions. Their growth rates should be read side by side, not averaged.

Both annual signals move in the same direction
FHFA five-year cumulative+51.1%not annualized · through 2025
0%ZILLOW ZHVI2026-06+1.1%FHFA HPI2025+4.5%
Annual changes use different methods and may use different periods. The comparison checks direction and magnitude; it does not create a blended estimate. Zillow county ZHVI pulled 2026-07-26; FHFA annual county HPI pulled 2026-07-28.
Owner-reported value$386k
Surveyed gross rent$1,507
Rent burden 30%+44.2%
Median year built1996
Housing composition

Who occupies the stock—and what it is

ACS 2024 5-year
5.1%vacant
37,288estimated housing units
Occupied tenure20.7% renter
owner 79.3%renter 20.7%
Structure mix86.5% single-family
Single-family 86.5%20+ units 3.2%Mobile home 5.8%Other 4.5%
ACS estimates describe the standing housing stock and occupied tenure. They do not measure current listings, transaction prices or asking rents.

Survey source: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30. These values describe different housing universes and are not combined into gross yield.

Annual average covered jobs38,293▼ 2.8% from the prior annual release
Covered establishments2,235annual average reporting locations
Average weekly wage$1,206▲ 1.0% from the prior annual release
Largest private supersectorTrade, transportation, and utilities32.5% of disclosed private covered jobs
Local labor base

Jobs, pay and private-sector concentration

2025
0%COVERED JOBS−2.8%WEEKLY WAGE+1.0%Trade, transportation, and utilities32.5%
Annual QCEW counts cover jobs located at reporting establishments. The industry share uses disclosed private covered employment; it is not a resident-employment measure or a forecast.

Workplace source: BLS QCEW — county employment and wages · annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 · pulled 2026-07-31. QCEW counts covered jobs located in the county, not employed residents or the metro score’s CES/LAUS series.

County brief

What the local evidence says

01Decision frame

Frederick County’s decision tension is a positive price-and-rent screen alongside softer covered-job data and a listing market that requires exit discipline. Investors relying on durable local tenant and resale depth should investigate; those requiring rapid disposition should be cautious. Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $434,420, up 1.14%, while QCEW annual covered workplace employment fell 2.78% in 2025. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 4.54% in that annual observation; it supports positive price direction but is neither a home value nor a rate to average with Zillow’s separately dated measure.

02Housing economics

At that Zillow observation, median asking rent was $2,256 monthly, producing the supplied 6.23% gross yield before costs. This is measured market rent, not HUD’s $1,573 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent payment standard; FMR cannot substitute for asking rent. The 0.48% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input. Insurance, financing, maintenance, vacancy and parcel assessment evidence are not published, preventing net-yield underwriting.

03Demand & competition

Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS evidence shows active listings rose 24.32% year over year and reductions on 19.52% of listings. Those are visible asking-market supply and seller-concession indicators—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand alone. Net migration was positive, and inbound movers’ average income exceeded outbound movers’ by the supplied $10,117 gap. Investor purchase mortgages represented 12.56% of total purchases, a participation measure that indicates potential competition but does not identify its effect on price or rents. The record’s listing-market evidence should therefore be tested against transaction terms and unit-level renter demand.

04Risk & next checks

Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled expected annual climate-loss ratio is 0.09% of building value. That is a county-level model output, not a parcel loss estimate; flood-zone, elevation, deductible and insurance checks are needed. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector in QCEW, which measures annual covered jobs at county workplaces rather than resident employment or the whole economy. County migration, investor and hazard measures cannot establish neighborhood demand or asset resilience. Next checks are unit-specific lease comparables, pending and closed transaction terms, parcel flood and insurance records, and tax assessments.

Cities & communities

Where people live within Frederick County

Census-recognized incorporated places and CDPs that intersect this county. The list does not pretend to include every neighborhood or informal community.

Population scale

Largest Census places

ACS 2024 5-year
Shawneeland CDP2.8KStephens City town2.4KLake Holiday CDP2.2KMiddletown town1.8KBrucetown CDP250Gore CDP86
Bars use total place population, not a county-share estimate. An asterisk marks a place that crosses a county line.
Official directory

6 Census places

Population
  1. 01
    Shawneeland CDPCensus-designated place
    2,754
  2. 02
    Stephens City townIncorporated place
    2,393
  3. 03
    Lake Holiday CDPCensus-designated place
    2,193
  4. 04
    Middletown townIncorporated place
    1,786
  5. 05
    Brucetown CDPCensus-designated place
    250
  6. 06
    Gore CDPCensus-designated place
    86

Population is the total place-wide ACS estimate, not an allocated county share. A place crossing a county line is labelled explicitly. Source: Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30.

Risk, demand and competition

The three things a price does not tell you

01
Risk & carrying costFEMA NRI + Census ACS
Dominant hazardinland flooding

0.091% of building value expected lost per year

Effective property tax0.48%

$1,846 median annual bill

02
DemandIRS SOI household flows
Net migration+567

3,538 in · 2,971 out

Arriving vs leaving income+$10,117

$77,640 arriving · $67,523 leaving

03
CompetitionHMDA financed purchases
Purchases by investors12.6%

212 of 1,688 mortgages

investorother financed
Current listing pressure

What sellers and visible supply are doing

Realtor.com® Economic Research · county inventory 2026-06 · pulled 2026-07-28
Active listings366▲ 24.3% year over year
Median days on market43▲ 17.0% year over year
Listings price-reduced19.5%seller-concession signal
Median listing pricen/a▲ 3.6% year over year

Listing price is an asking price, not a closed sale. Quality-flagged county rows are withheld instead of displayed.

Same metro

The other counties in Winchester, VA

A metro is an average of these. Which side of a county line a property sits on can change the tax bill, the hazard profile and the tenant pool.

CountyPopulationPriceRentYieldHazard
Frederick County95,008$434k$2,2566.2%inland flooding
Winchester city27,913$363k$1,6425.4%inland flooding
Hampshire County23,465$264kn/an/ainland flooding
Bear case

What can break the county thesis

  1. Covered-job contraction may coincide with weaker local tenant and buyer depth than the migration data suggest.
  2. Subject-property flood exposure and insurance terms may be worse than the county-level modeled loss ratio.
  3. County rent and MLS evidence may not represent the subject neighborhood, unit type or property condition.
Underwriting questions

Before pricing a property

Does the record provide a gross-yield measure based on market rent?

Yes. It supplies gross yield using published median asking rent before costs; HUD FMR is separately identified as a payment standard.

Can this record establish net property yield?

No. Insurance, financing, maintenance, vacancy and parcel-level assessment inputs are not published.

What labor measure supports the county view?

QCEW supplies annual covered jobs at county workplaces and identifies the largest disclosed private supersector; it is not resident employment or unemployment.